Recent inflation readings above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target, driven by energy supply disruptions and broader price pressures, have prompted a hawkish shift in policy expectations under Chair Kevin Warsh. Solid labor market data and resilient economic growth have reduced the likelihood of near-term cuts while raising the prospect of one or two 25-basis-point hikes before year-end. The September FOMC meeting and subsequent data releases on CPI, PCE, and employment will clarify whether officials favor holding the funds rate near its current 3.5–3.75 percent range or tightening further. Proximity to the midterms adds caution against aggressive moves. This balance of persistent inflation risks against moderating trends keeps implied probabilities for a 4.0 percent or 4.25 percent terminal rate closely matched among traders.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui4,25% 39.3%
4,0% 34.1%
≥ 4,5% 19.4%
3,75% 6.9%
$6,851,139 Vol.
$6,851,139 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
≤1,0%
<1%
1,25
1%
1,5%
<1%
1,75%
<1%
2,0%
<1%
2,25%
<1%
2,5%
<1%
2,75%
1%
3,0%
<1%
3,25%
<1%
3,5%
4%
3,75%
7%
4,0%
34%
4,25%
39%
≥ 4,5%
19%
4,25% 39.3%
4,0% 34.1%
≥ 4,5% 19.4%
3,75% 6.9%
$6,851,139 Vol.
$6,851,139 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
≤1,0%
$256,294 Vol.
<1%
1,25
$150,952 Vol.
1%
1,5%
$150,168 Vol.
<1%
1,75%
$153,208 Vol.
<1%
2,0%
$268,805 Vol.
<1%
2,25%
$92,336 Vol.
<1%
2,5%
$178,980 Vol.
<1%
2,75%
$69,588 Vol.
1%
3,0%
$499,515 Vol.
<1%
3,25%
$72,144 Vol.
<1%
3,5%
$204,061 Vol.
4%
3,75%
$535,948 Vol.
7%
4,0%
$1,372,897 Vol.
34%
4,25%
$434,576 Vol.
39%
≥ 4,5%
$2,411,667 Vol.
19%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent inflation readings above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target, driven by energy supply disruptions and broader price pressures, have prompted a hawkish shift in policy expectations under Chair Kevin Warsh. Solid labor market data and resilient economic growth have reduced the likelihood of near-term cuts while raising the prospect of one or two 25-basis-point hikes before year-end. The September FOMC meeting and subsequent data releases on CPI, PCE, and employment will clarify whether officials favor holding the funds rate near its current 3.5–3.75 percent range or tightening further. Proximity to the midterms adds caution against aggressive moves. This balance of persistent inflation risks against moderating trends keeps implied probabilities for a 4.0 percent or 4.25 percent terminal rate closely matched among traders.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
Volume
$6,851,139Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 9, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent inflation readings above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target, driven by energy supply disruptions and broader price pressures, have prompted a hawkish shift in policy expectations under Chair Kevin Warsh. Solid labor market data and resilient economic growth have reduced the likelihood of near-term cuts while raising the prospect of one or two 25-basis-point hikes before year-end. The September FOMC meeting and subsequent data releases on CPI, PCE, and employment will clarify whether officials favor holding the funds rate near its current 3.5–3.75 percent range or tightening further. Proximity to the midterms adds caution against aggressive moves. This balance of persistent inflation risks against moderating trends keeps implied probabilities for a 4.0 percent or 4.25 percent terminal rate closely matched among traders.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Volume
$6,851,139Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 9, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent inflation readings above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target, driven by energy supply disruptions and broader price pressures, have prompted a hawkish shift in policy expectations under Chair Kevin Warsh. Solid labor market data and resilient economic growth have reduced the likelihood of near-term cuts while raising the prospect of one or two 25-basis-point hikes before year-end. The September FOMC meeting and subsequent data releases on CPI, PCE, and employment will clarify whether officials favor holding the funds rate near its current 3.5–3.75 percent range or tightening further. Proximity to the midterms adds caution against aggressive moves. This balance of persistent inflation risks against moderating trends keeps implied probabilities for a 4.0 percent or 4.25 percent terminal rate closely matched among traders.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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