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Ekonomi·Bisnis

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

icon for How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Ekonomi·Bisnis

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

$225,212 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$225,212 Vol.

Polymarket

3.9%

$44,197 Vol.

12%

3.8%

$41,312 Vol.

5%

3.7%

$27,383 Vol.

2%

3.6%

$5,587 Vol.

5%

3.5%

$32,973 Vol.

4%

3.0%

$917 Vol.

3%

2.0%

$514 Vol.

2%

1.0%

$40,570 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent economic data and geopolitical tensions have kept the 10-year Treasury yield anchored near 4.65–4.70% in mid-August 2026, reflecting sticky core inflation, elevated term premiums, and fiscal deficit concerns that limit downside moves. Softer July producer prices and retail sales have tempered near-term rate-hike bets, yet University of Michigan inflation expectations remain above 4% amid Middle East energy risks. Market-implied paths point to limited easing, with consensus forecasts holding the yield in a 4.0–4.5% range through year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include August CPI and PPI releases, the next FOMC meeting, and any escalation in oil-price volatility that could widen the term premium further.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volume
$225,212
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent economic data and geopolitical tensions have kept the 10-year Treasury yield anchored near 4.65–4.70% in mid-August 2026, reflecting sticky core inflation, elevated term premiums, and fiscal deficit concerns that limit downside moves. Softer July producer prices and retail sales have tempered near-term rate-hike bets, yet University of Michigan inflation expectations remain above 4% amid Middle East energy risks. Market-implied paths point to limited easing, with consensus forecasts holding the yield in a 4.0–4.5% range through year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include August CPI and PPI releases, the next FOMC meeting, and any escalation in oil-price volatility that could widen the term premium further.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volume
$225,212
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 9 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "4.0%" di 100%, diikuti oleh "3.9%" di 12%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 100¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 100% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" telah menghasilkan $225.2K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Nov 12, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?," jelajahi 9 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" adalah "4.0%" di 100%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 100% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "3.9%" di 12%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.