Recent geopolitical tensions, including US-Iran dynamics and potential Strait of Hormuz disruptions, have driven crude oil price volatility in September 2026, with benchmarks surging toward $113 per barrel mid-month before easing to the $90–104 range amid truce hopes. These moves reflect supply risks and inventory draws, yet prices remain well below the 2008 nominal peak of $147, limiting near-term all-time high prospects. Traders weigh OPEC+ production decisions, global demand forecasts around $90 averages for late 2026, and macroeconomic factors like economic growth and refinery margins against historical precedents of sharp rallies during sustained crises. Key upcoming catalysts include EIA inventory reports and any further Middle East developments that could shift implied probabilities.