Recent hotter-than-expected October CPI data, showing a 0.4% monthly rise versus 0.3% forecasts, has elevated market-implied odds of a December FOMC rate hike, pushing the dollar index above 103 and 10-year Treasury yields near 5.15%. This monetary tightening path has driven gold futures to multi-month lows around $3,850–$3,900, reversing earlier 2026 gains above $5,500. Persistent central bank purchases, including 321 tonnes in Q3, alongside fiscal and geopolitical risks continue to anchor demand and limit downside. Traders are closely watching the December 9 policy decision and any revised dot-plot guidance for shifts in rate-path expectations that could influence near-term price action.