Recent U.S.-Iran tensions and persistent disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz have added a significant geopolitical risk premium to WTI crude, supporting prices near $100–$105 per barrel as of mid-May 2026. Supply losses estimated at 6–7 million barrels per day from Gulf producers have tightened near-term balances, pushing futures into backwardation and lifting implied probabilities for a weekly high above $105. Offsetting this, softer global demand—particularly in China—and robust U.S. output continue to cap upside, with the EIA’s weekly inventory report and OPEC+ quota discussions in June serving as the next key catalysts. Trader consensus reflects these supply risks dominating short-term sentiment while acknowledging the potential for rapid de-escalation to ease the premium.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui↑ $135
3%
↑ $130
3%
↑ $125
5%
↑ $120
11%
↑ $115
13%
↑ $110
30%
↑ $105
80%
↓ $100
86%
↓ $95
20%
↓ $90
24%
↓ $85
8%
↓ $80
5%
↓ $75
3%
↓ $70
1%
$5,218 Vol.
↑ $135
3%
↑ $130
3%
↑ $125
5%
↑ $120
11%
↑ $115
13%
↑ $110
30%
↑ $105
80%
↓ $100
86%
↓ $95
20%
↓ $90
24%
↓ $85
8%
↓ $80
5%
↓ $75
3%
↓ $70
1%
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session for the underlying market will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours.
Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract's last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day).
The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract's last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date.
For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar.
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "High" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
Pasar Dibuka: May 15, 2026, 6:01 PM ET
Sumber Resolusi
https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTIResolver
0x65070BE91...Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session for the underlying market will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours.
Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract's last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day).
The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract's last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date.
For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar.
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "High" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
Sumber Resolusi
https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTIResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Iran tensions and persistent disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz have added a significant geopolitical risk premium to WTI crude, supporting prices near $100–$105 per barrel as of mid-May 2026. Supply losses estimated at 6–7 million barrels per day from Gulf producers have tightened near-term balances, pushing futures into backwardation and lifting implied probabilities for a weekly high above $105. Offsetting this, softer global demand—particularly in China—and robust U.S. output continue to cap upside, with the EIA’s weekly inventory report and OPEC+ quota discussions in June serving as the next key catalysts. Trader consensus reflects these supply risks dominating short-term sentiment while acknowledging the potential for rapid de-escalation to ease the premium.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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