Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 62% probability that SpaceX's IPO closing market cap will exceed $2 trillion, reflecting surging private valuations near $1.4 trillion from recent secondary trades and the company's confidential April filing targeting over $2 trillion for a potential June listing. This positioning stems from Starlink's accelerating subscriber growth to millions, generating over $11 billion in 2025 revenue despite ARPU declines, alongside reusable Falcon 9 dominance and Starship version 3 preparations for a May 19 debut flight—key milestones validating multi-planetary ambitions. Brookfield's $2 billion pre-IPO stake signals institutional confidence, outweighing pension fund concerns over Musk's sweeping governance controls, with roadshows and SEC review as near-term catalysts that could solidify or shift odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui2,0T+ 62%
1,8T–2,0T 11%
1,6T–1,8T 8.6%
1,4T–1,6T 7.6%
$946,851 Vol.
$946,851 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
Tidak IPO sebelum 2028
1%
<1,0T
4%
1,0T–1,2T
2%
1,2T–1,4T
3%
1,4T–1,6T
8%
1,6T–1,8T
9%
1,8T–2,0T
11%
2,0T+
62%
2,0T+ 62%
1,8T–2,0T 11%
1,6T–1,8T 8.6%
1,4T–1,6T 7.6%
$946,851 Vol.
$946,851 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
Tidak IPO sebelum 2028
$189,586 Vol.
1%
<1,0T
$76,010 Vol.
4%
1,0T–1,2T
$54,098 Vol.
2%
1,2T–1,4T
$71,493 Vol.
3%
1,4T–1,6T
$116,179 Vol.
8%
1,6T–1,8T
$119,281 Vol.
9%
1,8T–2,0T
$106,321 Vol.
11%
2,0T+
$213,884 Vol.
62%
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 62% probability that SpaceX's IPO closing market cap will exceed $2 trillion, reflecting surging private valuations near $1.4 trillion from recent secondary trades and the company's confidential April filing targeting over $2 trillion for a potential June listing. This positioning stems from Starlink's accelerating subscriber growth to millions, generating over $11 billion in 2025 revenue despite ARPU declines, alongside reusable Falcon 9 dominance and Starship version 3 preparations for a May 19 debut flight—key milestones validating multi-planetary ambitions. Brookfield's $2 billion pre-IPO stake signals institutional confidence, outweighing pension fund concerns over Musk's sweeping governance controls, with roadshows and SEC review as near-term catalysts that could solidify or shift odds.
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 23, 2026, 1:58 PM ET
Volume
$946,851Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jan 23, 2026, 1:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 62% probability that SpaceX's IPO closing market cap will exceed $2 trillion, reflecting surging private valuations near $1.4 trillion from recent secondary trades and the company's confidential April filing targeting over $2 trillion for a potential June listing. This positioning stems from Starlink's accelerating subscriber growth to millions, generating over $11 billion in 2025 revenue despite ARPU declines, alongside reusable Falcon 9 dominance and Starship version 3 preparations for a May 19 debut flight—key milestones validating multi-planetary ambitions. Brookfield's $2 billion pre-IPO stake signals institutional confidence, outweighing pension fund concerns over Musk's sweeping governance controls, with roadshows and SEC review as near-term catalysts that could solidify or shift odds.
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$946,851Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jan 23, 2026, 1:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 62% probability that SpaceX's IPO closing market cap will exceed $2 trillion, reflecting surging private valuations near $1.4 trillion from recent secondary trades and the company's confidential April filing targeting over $2 trillion for a potential June listing. This positioning stems from Starlink's accelerating subscriber growth to millions, generating over $11 billion in 2025 revenue despite ARPU declines, alongside reusable Falcon 9 dominance and Starship version 3 preparations for a May 19 debut flight—key milestones validating multi-planetary ambitions. Brookfield's $2 billion pre-IPO stake signals institutional confidence, outweighing pension fund concerns over Musk's sweeping governance controls, with roadshows and SEC review as near-term catalysts that could solidify or shift odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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