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Tech·Culture

Human moon landing in 2026?

icon for Human moon landing in 2026?
Tech·Culture

Human moon landing in 2026?

3% peluang
Polymarket

$1,953,572 Vol.

3% peluang
Polymarket

$1,953,572 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" for a human moon landing in 2026 (97% implied probability) due to confirmed schedule shifts in NASA's Artemis program.** Artemis II, the first crewed lunar flyby since Apollo, launched successfully on April 1, 2026, and returned in mid-April, validating SLS and Orion systems but without any landing capability. NASA then restructured the sequence in February 2026: the original Artemis III landing target moved to Artemis IV in 2028, while a redesigned Artemis III became a 2027 low-Earth orbit demonstration flight focused on docking tests with lunar landers from SpaceX (Starship HLS) and Blue Origin (Blue Moon). Starship lunar landing hardware remains in early development, with uncrewed demos and crewed surface operations not slated before late 2027 at the earliest. No other agency or commercial effort has demonstrated the necessary orbital refueling, lander readiness, or safety certifications for a 2026 crewed touchdown. Historical Artemis delays—driven by technical integration, testing shortfalls, and supply chain issues—reinforce the timeline. While near-term breakthroughs in private Starship flights or unexpected international acceleration could theoretically compress schedules, realistic barriers like regulatory approvals, vehicle certification, and the remaining six months of 2026 make any reversal highly improbable. The market reflects aggregated trader assessment of these verified program milestones rather than speculation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,953,572
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" for a human moon landing in 2026 (97% implied probability) due to confirmed schedule shifts in NASA's Artemis program.** Artemis II, the first crewed lunar flyby since Apollo, launched successfully on April 1, 2026, and returned in mid-April, validating SLS and Orion systems but without any landing capability. NASA then restructured the sequence in February 2026: the original Artemis III landing target moved to Artemis IV in 2028, while a redesigned Artemis III became a 2027 low-Earth orbit demonstration flight focused on docking tests with lunar landers from SpaceX (Starship HLS) and Blue Origin (Blue Moon). Starship lunar landing hardware remains in early development, with uncrewed demos and crewed surface operations not slated before late 2027 at the earliest. No other agency or commercial effort has demonstrated the necessary orbital refueling, lander readiness, or safety certifications for a 2026 crewed touchdown. Historical Artemis delays—driven by technical integration, testing shortfalls, and supply chain issues—reinforce the timeline. While near-term breakthroughs in private Starship flights or unexpected international acceleration could theoretically compress schedules, realistic barriers like regulatory approvals, vehicle certification, and the remaining six months of 2026 make any reversal highly improbable. The market reflects aggregated trader assessment of these verified program milestones rather than speculation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,953,572
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Human moon landing in 2026?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 3% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 3¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 3% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Human moon landing in 2026?" telah menghasilkan $2 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Jan 7, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Human moon landing in 2026?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "Human moon landing in 2026?" adalah 3% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 3% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Human moon landing in 2026?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.