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How many SpaceX launches in 2026?

icon for How many SpaceX launches in 2026?

How many SpaceX launches in 2026?

140-159 55.5%

160-179 39%

120-139 7.6%

180-199 5.8%

Polymarket

$325,412 Vol.

140-159 55.5%

160-179 39%

120-139 7.6%

180-199 5.8%

Polymarket

$325,412 Vol.

<100

$5,134 Vol.

1%

100-119

$3,261 Vol.

2%

120-139

$4,365 Vol.

8%

140-159

$49,211 Vol.

55%

160-179

$96,978 Vol.

39%

180-199

$60,420 Vol.

6%

200 or more

$106,043 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.SpaceX’s sustained Falcon 9 cadence, driven by rapid booster reusability and frequent Starlink deployments, positions the 140-159 launch range as the leading market outcome at 55%. With 97 missions completed by mid-August 2026—on pace for roughly 145 total—the current 0.43 launches per day average must hold through year-end amid regulatory windows and vehicle availability. Trader consensus around 160-179 at 39% reflects upside potential if manifest density increases, while lower brackets account for possible technical pauses or range constraints. Upcoming model updates on booster fleet health and Starship flight tests will refine these implied probabilities as the remaining manifest firms.

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Volume
$325,412
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.SpaceX’s sustained Falcon 9 cadence, driven by rapid booster reusability and frequent Starlink deployments, positions the 140-159 launch range as the leading market outcome at 55%. With 97 missions completed by mid-August 2026—on pace for roughly 145 total—the current 0.43 launches per day average must hold through year-end amid regulatory windows and vehicle availability. Trader consensus around 160-179 at 39% reflects upside potential if manifest density increases, while lower brackets account for possible technical pauses or range constraints. Upcoming model updates on booster fleet health and Starship flight tests will refine these implied probabilities as the remaining manifest firms.

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Volume
$325,412
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"How many SpaceX launches in 2026?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 7 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "140-159" di 56%, diikuti oleh "160-179" di 39%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 56¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 56% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "How many SpaceX launches in 2026?" telah menghasilkan $325.4K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Jan 16, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "How many SpaceX launches in 2026?," jelajahi 7 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "How many SpaceX launches in 2026?" adalah "140-159" di 56%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 56% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "160-179" di 39%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "How many SpaceX launches in 2026?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.