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How many SpaceX launches in 2026?

icon for How many SpaceX launches in 2026?

How many SpaceX launches in 2026?

140-159 36.5%

160-179 30%

180-199 14.0%

120-139 5.0%

Polymarket

$301,900 Vol.

140-159 36.5%

160-179 30%

180-199 14.0%

120-139 5.0%

Polymarket

$301,900 Vol.

<100

$3,631 Vol.

1%

100-119

$1,987 Vol.

1%

120-139

$3,141 Vol.

5%

140-159

$44,106 Vol.

37%

160-179

$89,641 Vol.

30%

180-199

$58,353 Vol.

14%

200 or more

$101,041 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.As of mid-May 2026, SpaceX's Falcon 9 launch cadence exceeds 12 missions per month, with over 50 orbital attempts completed from pads at Cape Canaveral, Vandenberg, and Starbase—driven by rapid booster reusability (many on 20+ flights) and high-volume Starlink V3 deployments of 20-23 satellites per ride. This operational tempo, boasting near-100% success rates, underpins trader consensus favoring 140-179 total launches, as implied probabilities cluster tightly around 150-170 amid steady demand from commercial and national security payloads. The 140-159 bin leads due to potential pad turnaround limits and supply chain constraints on Starlink production, while 160+ hinges on Starship Version 3 scaling (FAA-approved for 44 flights/year), with its May debut test and orbital refueling trials as key differentiators; fresh model runs and license updates could shift odds further.

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Volume
$301,900
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.As of mid-May 2026, SpaceX's Falcon 9 launch cadence exceeds 12 missions per month, with over 50 orbital attempts completed from pads at Cape Canaveral, Vandenberg, and Starbase—driven by rapid booster reusability (many on 20+ flights) and high-volume Starlink V3 deployments of 20-23 satellites per ride. This operational tempo, boasting near-100% success rates, underpins trader consensus favoring 140-179 total launches, as implied probabilities cluster tightly around 150-170 amid steady demand from commercial and national security payloads. The 140-159 bin leads due to potential pad turnaround limits and supply chain constraints on Starlink production, while 160+ hinges on Starship Version 3 scaling (FAA-approved for 44 flights/year), with its May debut test and orbital refueling trials as key differentiators; fresh model runs and license updates could shift odds further.

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Volume
$301,900
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"How many SpaceX launches in 2026?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 7 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "140-159" di 37%, diikuti oleh "160-179" di 30%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 37¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 37% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "How many SpaceX launches in 2026?" telah menghasilkan $301.9K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Jan 16, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "How many SpaceX launches in 2026?," jelajahi 7 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "How many SpaceX launches in 2026?" adalah "140-159" di 37%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 37% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "160-179" di 30%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "How many SpaceX launches in 2026?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.