Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 72.5% implied probability for "No" natural disaster in 2026, driven by the complete absence of qualifying events through mid-May per official sources: no Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall (National Hurricane Center), no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake worldwide (USGS), no Volcanic Explosivity Index ≥6 eruption (Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program), and no 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst (NASA CNEOS). These thresholds capture extreme rarities—U.S. Cat 5 landfalls average under once per decade on the Saffir-Simpson scale, M8.5+ quakes occur globally every 5–10 years—amid Colorado State University's forecast for below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity due to weak La Niña transitioning toward neutral ENSO conditions. Peak risks loom in June–November; watch NHC updates and USGS seismic feeds for shifts.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$217,927 Vol.
$217,927 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$217,927 Vol.
$217,927 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 72.5% implied probability for "No" natural disaster in 2026, driven by the complete absence of qualifying events through mid-May per official sources: no Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall (National Hurricane Center), no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake worldwide (USGS), no Volcanic Explosivity Index ≥6 eruption (Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program), and no 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst (NASA CNEOS). These thresholds capture extreme rarities—U.S. Cat 5 landfalls average under once per decade on the Saffir-Simpson scale, M8.5+ quakes occur globally every 5–10 years—amid Colorado State University's forecast for below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity due to weak La Niña transitioning toward neutral ENSO conditions. Peak risks loom in June–November; watch NHC updates and USGS seismic feeds for shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$217,927Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 72.5% implied probability for "No" natural disaster in 2026, driven by the complete absence of qualifying events through mid-May per official sources: no Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall (National Hurricane Center), no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake worldwide (USGS), no Volcanic Explosivity Index ≥6 eruption (Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program), and no 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst (NASA CNEOS). These thresholds capture extreme rarities—U.S. Cat 5 landfalls average under once per decade on the Saffir-Simpson scale, M8.5+ quakes occur globally every 5–10 years—amid Colorado State University's forecast for below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity due to weak La Niña transitioning toward neutral ENSO conditions. Peak risks loom in June–November; watch NHC updates and USGS seismic feeds for shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$217,927Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 72.5% implied probability for "No" natural disaster in 2026, driven by the complete absence of qualifying events through mid-May per official sources: no Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall (National Hurricane Center), no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake worldwide (USGS), no Volcanic Explosivity Index ≥6 eruption (Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program), and no 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst (NASA CNEOS). These thresholds capture extreme rarities—U.S. Cat 5 landfalls average under once per decade on the Saffir-Simpson scale, M8.5+ quakes occur globally every 5–10 years—amid Colorado State University's forecast for below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity due to weak La Niña transitioning toward neutral ENSO conditions. Peak risks loom in June–November; watch NHC updates and USGS seismic feeds for shifts.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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