Trader consensus currently assigns a 77% implied probability to “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of the market’s resolution thresholds. Official USGS seismic records and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data show that magnitude 8.5+ earthquakes, VEI 6+ volcanic eruptions, Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfalls, and 10-kiloton+ meteor impacts occur on multi-decade or longer timescales, with none recorded through mid-August 2026 despite ongoing moderate seismic activity and tropical systems. Strengthening El Niño conditions tracked by NOAA may further suppress Atlantic hurricane intensity this season, while baseline tectonic and magmatic monitoring shows no precursors for rapid escalation. Remaining resolution time through December leaves limited scope for an unexpected outlier event to shift odds materially before year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
23% peluang
$240,520 Vol.
$240,520 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
23% peluang
$240,520 Vol.
$240,520 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus currently assigns a 77% implied probability to “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of the market’s resolution thresholds. Official USGS seismic records and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data show that magnitude 8.5+ earthquakes, VEI 6+ volcanic eruptions, Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfalls, and 10-kiloton+ meteor impacts occur on multi-decade or longer timescales, with none recorded through mid-August 2026 despite ongoing moderate seismic activity and tropical systems. Strengthening El Niño conditions tracked by NOAA may further suppress Atlantic hurricane intensity this season, while baseline tectonic and magmatic monitoring shows no precursors for rapid escalation. Remaining resolution time through December leaves limited scope for an unexpected outlier event to shift odds materially before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$240,520Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus currently assigns a 77% implied probability to “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of the market’s resolution thresholds. Official USGS seismic records and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data show that magnitude 8.5+ earthquakes, VEI 6+ volcanic eruptions, Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfalls, and 10-kiloton+ meteor impacts occur on multi-decade or longer timescales, with none recorded through mid-August 2026 despite ongoing moderate seismic activity and tropical systems. Strengthening El Niño conditions tracked by NOAA may further suppress Atlantic hurricane intensity this season, while baseline tectonic and magmatic monitoring shows no precursors for rapid escalation. Remaining resolution time through December leaves limited scope for an unexpected outlier event to shift odds materially before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$240,520Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus currently assigns a 77% implied probability to “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of the market’s resolution thresholds. Official USGS seismic records and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data show that magnitude 8.5+ earthquakes, VEI 6+ volcanic eruptions, Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfalls, and 10-kiloton+ meteor impacts occur on multi-decade or longer timescales, with none recorded through mid-August 2026 despite ongoing moderate seismic activity and tropical systems. Strengthening El Niño conditions tracked by NOAA may further suppress Atlantic hurricane intensity this season, while baseline tectonic and magmatic monitoring shows no precursors for rapid escalation. Remaining resolution time through December leaves limited scope for an unexpected outlier event to shift odds materially before year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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