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Iklim & Sains·Weather

Berapa banyak gempa bumi 7,0 ke atas pada tahun 2026?

icon for Berapa banyak gempa bumi 7,0 ke atas pada tahun 2026?
Iklim & Sains·Weather

Berapa banyak gempa bumi 7,0 ke atas pada tahun 2026?

Jun 30

Dec 31

Jun 30

Dec 31

14–16 31%

11–13 26%

17–19 21%

8–10 10.0%

Polymarket

$1,305,226 Vol.

14–16 31%

11–13 26%

17–19 21%

8–10 10.0%

Polymarket

$1,305,226 Vol.

5–7

$70,068 Vol.

1%

8–10

$129,521 Vol.

10%

11–13

$410,431 Vol.

26%

14–16

$183,942 Vol.

31%

17–19

$206,159 Vol.

21%

20+

$62,166 Vol.

10%

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.USGS seismic catalog confirms five magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide through mid-May 2026, including a M7.5 near Tonga on March 24 and M7.4 off Japan on April 20, putting the year on pace for about 13–14 total amid a quiet May. Trader consensus favors 14–16 (30.5% implied probability) closely trailed by 11–13 (26.0%), reflecting historical averages of roughly 16 M7+ annually from long-term global records, with natural year-to-year fluctuations due to clustered releases along subduction zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Distinguishing factors include potential for aftershock sequences or strain buildup on major faults, though short-term prediction remains impossible; ongoing USGS monitoring will track H2 activity against baseline tectonic rates.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$1,305,226
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.USGS seismic catalog confirms five magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide through mid-May 2026, including a M7.5 near Tonga on March 24 and M7.4 off Japan on April 20, putting the year on pace for about 13–14 total amid a quiet May. Trader consensus favors 14–16 (30.5% implied probability) closely trailed by 11–13 (26.0%), reflecting historical averages of roughly 16 M7+ annually from long-term global records, with natural year-to-year fluctuations due to clustered releases along subduction zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Distinguishing factors include potential for aftershock sequences or strain buildup on major faults, though short-term prediction remains impossible; ongoing USGS monitoring will track H2 activity against baseline tectonic rates.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$1,305,226
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Berapa banyak gempa bumi 7,0 ke atas pada tahun 2026?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 7 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "14–16" di 31%, diikuti oleh "11–13" di 26%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 31¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 31% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Berapa banyak gempa bumi 7,0 ke atas pada tahun 2026?" telah menghasilkan $1.3 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Dec 31, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Berapa banyak gempa bumi 7,0 ke atas pada tahun 2026?," jelajahi 7 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Berapa banyak gempa bumi 7,0 ke atas pada tahun 2026?" adalah "14–16" di 31%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 31% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "11–13" di 26%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Berapa banyak gempa bumi 7,0 ke atas pada tahun 2026?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.