Recent Met Office guidance and ensemble model runs indicate London’s overnight minimum on August 16 will most likely settle between 16 °C and 18 °C under clear to partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds. These conditions favor modest radiative cooling after daytime maxima near 26 °C, consistent with the market’s heavy weighting toward 18 °C and 17 °C. Seasonal climatology shows typical mid-August lows around 14–15 °C, yet a persistent mild airflow from the continent has kept recent nights 2–3 °C above average. Any strengthening breeze or increased cloud cover before dawn could nudge readings toward the lower end of the range, while further clearing would support the higher probabilities currently priced. Final confirmation will come from official observations once the 24-hour period ends.