Recent AEMET and ECMWF model runs indicate Madrid will experience stable high-pressure conditions with daytime maxima likely peaking near 34–35°C on August 16, driving the near-even market-implied odds of 41.5% for 34°C and 38.5% for 35°C. Subtle differences in these outcomes hinge on factors such as surface heating rates, light northerly flow strength, and any afternoon convective cloud development that could cap temperatures by 1–2°C. Historical late-August baselines for central Spain average around 32°C, but current persistence of warm air masses supports the slight upward tilt in trader consensus. Updated official guidance and next model cycles over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Madrid on August 16?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 16?
34°C 42%
35°C 39%
33°C 11%
36°C 9%
BARU
BARU
Aug 16, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
3%
33°C
11%
34°C
42%
35°C
39%
36°C
9%
37°C or higher
2%
34°C 42%
35°C 39%
33°C 11%
36°C 9%
BARU
BARU
Aug 16, 2026
27°C or below
$309 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$153 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$122 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$33 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$29 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$76 Vol.
3%
33°C
$317 Vol.
11%
34°C
$659 Vol.
42%
35°C
$2,399 Vol.
39%
36°C
$358 Vol.
9%
37°C or higher
$128 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET and ECMWF model runs indicate Madrid will experience stable high-pressure conditions with daytime maxima likely peaking near 34–35°C on August 16, driving the near-even market-implied odds of 41.5% for 34°C and 38.5% for 35°C. Subtle differences in these outcomes hinge on factors such as surface heating rates, light northerly flow strength, and any afternoon convective cloud development that could cap temperatures by 1–2°C. Historical late-August baselines for central Spain average around 32°C, but current persistence of warm air masses supports the slight upward tilt in trader consensus. Updated official guidance and next model cycles over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$4,584Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET and ECMWF model runs indicate Madrid will experience stable high-pressure conditions with daytime maxima likely peaking near 34–35°C on August 16, driving the near-even market-implied odds of 41.5% for 34°C and 38.5% for 35°C. Subtle differences in these outcomes hinge on factors such as surface heating rates, light northerly flow strength, and any afternoon convective cloud development that could cap temperatures by 1–2°C. Historical late-August baselines for central Spain average around 32°C, but current persistence of warm air masses supports the slight upward tilt in trader consensus. Updated official guidance and next model cycles over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,584Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent AEMET and ECMWF model runs indicate Madrid will experience stable high-pressure conditions with daytime maxima likely peaking near 34–35°C on August 16, driving the near-even market-implied odds of 41.5% for 34°C and 38.5% for 35°C. Subtle differences in these outcomes hinge on factors such as surface heating rates, light northerly flow strength, and any afternoon convective cloud development that could cap temperatures by 1–2°C. Historical late-August baselines for central Spain average around 32°C, but current persistence of warm air masses supports the slight upward tilt in trader consensus. Updated official guidance and next model cycles over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan