Current short-range forecasts from ensembles like ECMWF and GFS show Madrid's August 15 maximum likely peaking near 33–34°C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and strong daytime insolation typical of the region's continental climate. Recent model runs suggest modest cooling from prior early-August heat, with light northerly flow potentially limiting further warming, though urban heat island effects and low humidity could support brief spikes. Trader consensus clusters tightly around these values because ensemble spreads remain narrow just 48 hours out, while higher outcomes would require unexpected subsidence strengthening or southerly advection. AEMET updates and next model cycles could refine landfall timing of any Atlantic trough.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Madrid on August 15?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 15?
33°C 35%
34°C 32%
35°C 15%
32°C 11%
BARU
BARU
Aug 15, 2026
30°C or below
1%
31°C
3%
32°C
11%
33°C
35%
34°C
32%
35°C
15%
36°C
9%
37°C
2%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C or higher
<1%
33°C 35%
34°C 32%
35°C 15%
32°C 11%
BARU
BARU
Aug 15, 2026
30°C or below
$14 Vol.
1%
31°C
$10 Vol.
3%
32°C
$336 Vol.
11%
33°C
$184 Vol.
35%
34°C
$370 Vol.
32%
35°C
$114 Vol.
15%
36°C
$290 Vol.
9%
37°C
$20 Vol.
2%
38°C
$43 Vol.
<1%
39°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
40°C or higher
$84 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range forecasts from ensembles like ECMWF and GFS show Madrid's August 15 maximum likely peaking near 33–34°C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and strong daytime insolation typical of the region's continental climate. Recent model runs suggest modest cooling from prior early-August heat, with light northerly flow potentially limiting further warming, though urban heat island effects and low humidity could support brief spikes. Trader consensus clusters tightly around these values because ensemble spreads remain narrow just 48 hours out, while higher outcomes would require unexpected subsidence strengthening or southerly advection. AEMET updates and next model cycles could refine landfall timing of any Atlantic trough.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,485Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range forecasts from ensembles like ECMWF and GFS show Madrid's August 15 maximum likely peaking near 33–34°C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and strong daytime insolation typical of the region's continental climate. Recent model runs suggest modest cooling from prior early-August heat, with light northerly flow potentially limiting further warming, though urban heat island effects and low humidity could support brief spikes. Trader consensus clusters tightly around these values because ensemble spreads remain narrow just 48 hours out, while higher outcomes would require unexpected subsidence strengthening or southerly advection. AEMET updates and next model cycles could refine landfall timing of any Atlantic trough.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,485Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current short-range forecasts from ensembles like ECMWF and GFS show Madrid's August 15 maximum likely peaking near 33–34°C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and strong daytime insolation typical of the region's continental climate. Recent model runs suggest modest cooling from prior early-August heat, with light northerly flow potentially limiting further warming, though urban heat island effects and low humidity could support brief spikes. Trader consensus clusters tightly around these values because ensemble spreads remain narrow just 48 hours out, while higher outcomes would require unexpected subsidence strengthening or southerly advection. AEMET updates and next model cycles could refine landfall timing of any Atlantic trough.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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