Recent ensemble forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and European models indicate Moscow's August 15 high will most likely peak near 19–21 °C, driven by a transitional high-pressure system with limited daytime heating and variable cloud cover. This places the market's near-even 40 % odds on 19 °C and 20 °C in line with the narrow spread across model runs, where small differences in boundary-layer moisture or wind speed can shift the daily maximum by 1–2 °C. Mid-August climatology averages roughly 22 °C, yet the current cooler-than-normal pattern has tightened the distribution around these values. Traders are weighting the latest 48-hour model updates most heavily, as any revision in the 00Z or 12Z runs before resolution could readily move probability between the two leading outcomes.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Moscow on August 15?
Highest temperature in Moscow on August 15?
20°C 44%
19°C 24%
21°C 24%
18°C 11%
BARU
BARU
Aug 15, 2026
15°C or below
4%
16°C
5%
17°C
2%
18°C
11%
19°C
24%
20°C
44%
21°C
24%
22°C
9%
23°C
5%
24°C
5%
25°C or higher
2%
20°C 44%
19°C 24%
21°C 24%
18°C 11%
BARU
BARU
Aug 15, 2026
15°C or below
$31 Vol.
4%
16°C
$19 Vol.
5%
17°C
$402 Vol.
2%
18°C
$196 Vol.
11%
19°C
$320 Vol.
24%
20°C
$269 Vol.
44%
21°C
$237 Vol.
24%
22°C
$235 Vol.
9%
23°C
$5 Vol.
5%
24°C
$12 Vol.
5%
25°C or higher
$12 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and European models indicate Moscow's August 15 high will most likely peak near 19–21 °C, driven by a transitional high-pressure system with limited daytime heating and variable cloud cover. This places the market's near-even 40 % odds on 19 °C and 20 °C in line with the narrow spread across model runs, where small differences in boundary-layer moisture or wind speed can shift the daily maximum by 1–2 °C. Mid-August climatology averages roughly 22 °C, yet the current cooler-than-normal pattern has tightened the distribution around these values. Traders are weighting the latest 48-hour model updates most heavily, as any revision in the 00Z or 12Z runs before resolution could readily move probability between the two leading outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$1,738Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and European models indicate Moscow's August 15 high will most likely peak near 19–21 °C, driven by a transitional high-pressure system with limited daytime heating and variable cloud cover. This places the market's near-even 40 % odds on 19 °C and 20 °C in line with the narrow spread across model runs, where small differences in boundary-layer moisture or wind speed can shift the daily maximum by 1–2 °C. Mid-August climatology averages roughly 22 °C, yet the current cooler-than-normal pattern has tightened the distribution around these values. Traders are weighting the latest 48-hour model updates most heavily, as any revision in the 00Z or 12Z runs before resolution could readily move probability between the two leading outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,738Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and European models indicate Moscow's August 15 high will most likely peak near 19–21 °C, driven by a transitional high-pressure system with limited daytime heating and variable cloud cover. This places the market's near-even 40 % odds on 19 °C and 20 °C in line with the narrow spread across model runs, where small differences in boundary-layer moisture or wind speed can shift the daily maximum by 1–2 °C. Mid-August climatology averages roughly 22 °C, yet the current cooler-than-normal pattern has tightened the distribution around these values. Traders are weighting the latest 48-hour model updates most heavily, as any revision in the 00Z or 12Z runs before resolution could readily move probability between the two leading outcomes.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan