Current forecast models from European and global ensembles indicate Warsaw temperatures on August 15 will likely peak between 29–32 °C, driven by a weakening high-pressure ridge allowing modest warm-air advection from the south under mostly clear skies. Ensemble spread remains modest but reflects typical mid-August variability, with small differences in boundary-layer moisture, surface wind speed, and daytime cloud cover determining whether maximum readings reach the upper or lower end of that range. Historical climatology for the period centers near 26–28 °C, so the market’s clustering around 30–31 °C reflects traders weighting the latest model runs showing a brief warmer anomaly rather than any extreme heat event. Updated runs expected within 24–48 hours could shift odds if guidance diverges on frontal timing or insolation.