Wellington’s August climatology features average daily highs near 13°C under prevailing westerly flows, yet current model guidance and MetService outlooks favor a mild 14–15°C peak on the 13th due to a persistent ridge of high pressure delivering sunny intervals and reduced mixing. This setup suppresses typical wind-driven cooling and allows brief daytime warming above seasonal norms, consistent with NIWA’s near-average seasonal signal. Forecasters note minimal model spread for maximum temperature, with ensemble members clustering around these values and low risk of a colder southerly change before the 13th. The 49.5% market-implied probability on 15°C and 32.5% on 14°C therefore reflect trader consensus around this stable, mildly elevated forecast rather than any extreme deviation or rapid model shift.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Wellington on August 13?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 13?
15°C 50%
14°C 33%
16°C 11%
13°C 7%
BARU
$10,810 Vol.
BARU
$10,810 Vol.
Aug 13, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
7%
14°C
33%
15°C
50%
16°C
11%
17°C
2%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
15°C 50%
14°C 33%
16°C 11%
13°C 7%
BARU
$10,810 Vol.
BARU
$10,810 Vol.
Aug 13, 2026
9°C or below
$429 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$579 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$368 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$769 Vol.
1%
13°C
$1,384 Vol.
7%
14°C
$1,794 Vol.
33%
15°C
$1,622 Vol.
50%
16°C
$2,186 Vol.
11%
17°C
$534 Vol.
2%
18°C
$438 Vol.
<1%
19°C or higher
$707 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Wellington’s August climatology features average daily highs near 13°C under prevailing westerly flows, yet current model guidance and MetService outlooks favor a mild 14–15°C peak on the 13th due to a persistent ridge of high pressure delivering sunny intervals and reduced mixing. This setup suppresses typical wind-driven cooling and allows brief daytime warming above seasonal norms, consistent with NIWA’s near-average seasonal signal. Forecasters note minimal model spread for maximum temperature, with ensemble members clustering around these values and low risk of a colder southerly change before the 13th. The 49.5% market-implied probability on 15°C and 32.5% on 14°C therefore reflect trader consensus around this stable, mildly elevated forecast rather than any extreme deviation or rapid model shift.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$10,810Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 13, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Wellington’s August climatology features average daily highs near 13°C under prevailing westerly flows, yet current model guidance and MetService outlooks favor a mild 14–15°C peak on the 13th due to a persistent ridge of high pressure delivering sunny intervals and reduced mixing. This setup suppresses typical wind-driven cooling and allows brief daytime warming above seasonal norms, consistent with NIWA’s near-average seasonal signal. Forecasters note minimal model spread for maximum temperature, with ensemble members clustering around these values and low risk of a colder southerly change before the 13th. The 49.5% market-implied probability on 15°C and 32.5% on 14°C therefore reflect trader consensus around this stable, mildly elevated forecast rather than any extreme deviation or rapid model shift.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10,810Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 13, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wellington’s August climatology features average daily highs near 13°C under prevailing westerly flows, yet current model guidance and MetService outlooks favor a mild 14–15°C peak on the 13th due to a persistent ridge of high pressure delivering sunny intervals and reduced mixing. This setup suppresses typical wind-driven cooling and allows brief daytime warming above seasonal norms, consistent with NIWA’s near-average seasonal signal. Forecasters note minimal model spread for maximum temperature, with ensemble members clustering around these values and low risk of a colder southerly change before the 13th. The 49.5% market-implied probability on 15°C and 32.5% on 14°C therefore reflect trader consensus around this stable, mildly elevated forecast rather than any extreme deviation or rapid model shift.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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