Strong scientific consensus and epidemiological data support the near-certain market-implied odds against a hantavirus pandemic in 2026. The virus remains primarily rodent-borne, with limited human-to-human transmission even for the Andes strain involved in the contained 2026 MV Hondius cruise ship outbreak of roughly 13 cases and three deaths. Official CDC and WHO surveillance recorded no sustained community spread after quarantines ended, consistent with historical patterns of localized outbreaks rather than exponential global transmission. Hantavirus case-fatality rates of 20–40% occur in sporadic clusters tied to rodent exposure, without the airborne or contact efficiency needed for pandemic thresholds. Realistic scenarios that could shift outcomes include emergence of a novel, highly transmissible variant or undetected clusters in regions with weak surveillance, though current monitoring shows no such developments.