Recent Météo-France and ECMWF model consensus points to a cooling trend for Paris on August 15, with peak daytime temperatures most likely reaching 32–33°C under increasing cloud cover and a risk of afternoon thunderstorms that limit solar heating. This shift follows midweek highs near 38°C driven by persistent high pressure, clear skies, and weak winds favoring strong insolation. The implied probabilities favoring 32–33°C outcomes reflect updated short-range guidance showing the arrival of a cooler air mass by the weekend, consistent with climatological patterns where early August heat often moderates quickly. Traders are monitoring the next model runs for any revisions to timing or intensity of the expected stabilization around these thresholds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Paris on August 15?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 15?
33°C 42%
32°C 32%
34°C 15%
31°C 9%
BARU
BARU
Aug 15, 2026
30°C or below
3%
31°C
9%
32°C
32%
33°C
42%
34°C
15%
35°C
5%
36°C
2%
37°C
1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C or higher
<1%
33°C 42%
32°C 32%
34°C 15%
31°C 9%
BARU
BARU
Aug 15, 2026
30°C or below
$267 Vol.
3%
31°C
$15 Vol.
9%
32°C
$105 Vol.
32%
33°C
$165 Vol.
42%
34°C
$1 Vol.
15%
35°C
$5 Vol.
5%
36°C
$201 Vol.
2%
37°C
$22 Vol.
1%
38°C
$137 Vol.
<1%
39°C
$457 Vol.
<1%
40°C or higher
$467 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Météo-France and ECMWF model consensus points to a cooling trend for Paris on August 15, with peak daytime temperatures most likely reaching 32–33°C under increasing cloud cover and a risk of afternoon thunderstorms that limit solar heating. This shift follows midweek highs near 38°C driven by persistent high pressure, clear skies, and weak winds favoring strong insolation. The implied probabilities favoring 32–33°C outcomes reflect updated short-range guidance showing the arrival of a cooler air mass by the weekend, consistent with climatological patterns where early August heat often moderates quickly. Traders are monitoring the next model runs for any revisions to timing or intensity of the expected stabilization around these thresholds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 13, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$1,843Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 13, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Météo-France and ECMWF model consensus points to a cooling trend for Paris on August 15, with peak daytime temperatures most likely reaching 32–33°C under increasing cloud cover and a risk of afternoon thunderstorms that limit solar heating. This shift follows midweek highs near 38°C driven by persistent high pressure, clear skies, and weak winds favoring strong insolation. The implied probabilities favoring 32–33°C outcomes reflect updated short-range guidance showing the arrival of a cooler air mass by the weekend, consistent with climatological patterns where early August heat often moderates quickly. Traders are monitoring the next model runs for any revisions to timing or intensity of the expected stabilization around these thresholds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,843Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 13, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Météo-France and ECMWF model consensus points to a cooling trend for Paris on August 15, with peak daytime temperatures most likely reaching 32–33°C under increasing cloud cover and a risk of afternoon thunderstorms that limit solar heating. This shift follows midweek highs near 38°C driven by persistent high pressure, clear skies, and weak winds favoring strong insolation. The implied probabilities favoring 32–33°C outcomes reflect updated short-range guidance showing the arrival of a cooler air mass by the weekend, consistent with climatological patterns where early August heat often moderates quickly. Traders are monitoring the next model runs for any revisions to timing or intensity of the expected stabilization around these thresholds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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