Recent passage of Typhoon Dolphin, which brought heavy rain and flooding to Shanghai around August 10, has introduced lingering cloud cover, elevated soil moisture, and moderated humidity levels that limit overnight radiative cooling. These conditions support the tight market clustering around 25–26°C minima, as ensemble forecasts from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration show only modest model spread in low-level wind speeds and boundary-layer mixing for August 17. Subtropical monsoon influences and Shanghai’s urban heat island typically anchor nighttime lows near the 24–27°C historical range for mid-August, with small differences in forecast cloud persistence or residual precipitation determining whether the minimum settles at 25°C or 26°C. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities.