Global seismicity follows a roughly Poisson distribution, with historical USGS data showing an average of 2–3 magnitude 6.5+ events per week worldwide amid natural clustering from aftershock sequences and tectonic stress release. As of mid-August 2026, monitoring indicates typical background rates without major ongoing swarms or foreshock activity that would sharply elevate near-term odds for higher counts. Trader consensus around 1–3 events reflects this baseline uncertainty, where small shifts in fault interactions or undetected slow-slip events could tip outcomes, while probabilities for 0 or 4+ remain lower due to the rarity of extreme deviations in short windows. Continuous USGS updates through the period will provide the next key data points.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23?
5 35.4%
1 32%
0 25%
2 19%
BARU
BARU
Aug 23, 2026
0
25%
1
32%
2
31%
3
10%
4
8%
5
35%
>5
1%
5 35.4%
1 32%
0 25%
2 19%
BARU
BARU
Aug 23, 2026
0
$12 Vol.
25%
1
$45 Vol.
32%
2
$44 Vol.
31%
3
$36 Vol.
10%
4
$74 Vol.
8%
5
$16 Vol.
35%
>5
$16 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismicity follows a roughly Poisson distribution, with historical USGS data showing an average of 2–3 magnitude 6.5+ events per week worldwide amid natural clustering from aftershock sequences and tectonic stress release. As of mid-August 2026, monitoring indicates typical background rates without major ongoing swarms or foreshock activity that would sharply elevate near-term odds for higher counts. Trader consensus around 1–3 events reflects this baseline uncertainty, where small shifts in fault interactions or undetected slow-slip events could tip outcomes, while probabilities for 0 or 4+ remain lower due to the rarity of extreme deviations in short windows. Continuous USGS updates through the period will provide the next key data points.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Volume
$244Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 24, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismicity follows a roughly Poisson distribution, with historical USGS data showing an average of 2–3 magnitude 6.5+ events per week worldwide amid natural clustering from aftershock sequences and tectonic stress release. As of mid-August 2026, monitoring indicates typical background rates without major ongoing swarms or foreshock activity that would sharply elevate near-term odds for higher counts. Trader consensus around 1–3 events reflects this baseline uncertainty, where small shifts in fault interactions or undetected slow-slip events could tip outcomes, while probabilities for 0 or 4+ remain lower due to the rarity of extreme deviations in short windows. Continuous USGS updates through the period will provide the next key data points.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$244Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 24, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismicity follows a roughly Poisson distribution, with historical USGS data showing an average of 2–3 magnitude 6.5+ events per week worldwide amid natural clustering from aftershock sequences and tectonic stress release. As of mid-August 2026, monitoring indicates typical background rates without major ongoing swarms or foreshock activity that would sharply elevate near-term odds for higher counts. Trader consensus around 1–3 events reflects this baseline uncertainty, where small shifts in fault interactions or undetected slow-slip events could tip outcomes, while probabilities for 0 or 4+ remain lower due to the rarity of extreme deviations in short windows. Continuous USGS updates through the period will provide the next key data points.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTerkait
Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?
44%
Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?
56%
Apakah akan ada antara 14 dan 16 gempa bumi berkekuatan 7.0 atau lebih tinggi di seluruh dunia pada tahun 2026?
40%
Ya
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