Official USGS seismic monitoring data recorded three earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater during the August 10–16 window, aligning with typical global rates of roughly one to two such events per week and driving the near-certain market consensus on three. Model runs and aftershock sequences from regional fault systems showed no additional qualifying events, while magnitude revisions remain unlikely given verified instrumental readings. A shift to four would require either an unreported late-week event above the threshold or official reclassification of a borderline quake, both low-probability outcomes absent new observational evidence from global networks.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 10 - August 16?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 10 - August 16?
$38,396 Vol.
$38,396 Vol.
Aug 10, 2026
3
100%
4
<1%
$38,396 Vol.
$38,396 Vol.
Aug 10, 2026
3
$6,645 Vol.
100%
4
$2,289 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Official USGS seismic monitoring data recorded three earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater during the August 10–16 window, aligning with typical global rates of roughly one to two such events per week and driving the near-certain market consensus on three. Model runs and aftershock sequences from regional fault systems showed no additional qualifying events, while magnitude revisions remain unlikely given verified instrumental readings. A shift to four would require either an unreported late-week event above the threshold or official reclassification of a borderline quake, both low-probability outcomes absent new observational evidence from global networks.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ET
Volume
$38,396Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 17, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Official USGS seismic monitoring data recorded three earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater during the August 10–16 window, aligning with typical global rates of roughly one to two such events per week and driving the near-certain market consensus on three. Model runs and aftershock sequences from regional fault systems showed no additional qualifying events, while magnitude revisions remain unlikely given verified instrumental readings. A shift to four would require either an unreported late-week event above the threshold or official reclassification of a borderline quake, both low-probability outcomes absent new observational evidence from global networks.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$38,396Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 17, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Official USGS seismic monitoring data recorded three earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater during the August 10–16 window, aligning with typical global rates of roughly one to two such events per week and driving the near-certain market consensus on three. Model runs and aftershock sequences from regional fault systems showed no additional qualifying events, while magnitude revisions remain unlikely given verified instrumental readings. A shift to four would require either an unreported late-week event above the threshold or official reclassification of a borderline quake, both low-probability outcomes absent new observational evidence from global networks.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTerkait
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?
42%
Will there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?
24%
Apakah akan ada antara 14 dan 16 gempa bumi berkekuatan 7.0 atau lebih tinggi di seluruh dunia pada tahun 2026?
40%
Ya
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan