Subdued seasonal forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season underpin the 62% market-implied probability that no Category 4 hurricane—defined by sustained winds of 130–156 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale—will make U.S. landfall before 2027. Colorado State University’s April outlook projects 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and only two major (Category 3+) systems, yielding a below-average 32% chance of any major landfall along the continental U.S. coast compared with the long-term 43% baseline, driven by a weak La Niña transitioning to El Niño conditions that elevate vertical wind shear and suppress intensification. Warmer western Atlantic sea-surface temperatures provide modest upside risk, yet no tropical cyclones have formed as of mid-May, consistent with 2025’s complete absence of U.S. hurricane landfalls. NOAA’s full seasonal outlook, scheduled for May 21, and subsequent model runs will further refine these probabilities ahead of the June–November peak.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
$327,353 Vol.
$327,353 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$327,353 Vol.
$327,353 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Subdued seasonal forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season underpin the 62% market-implied probability that no Category 4 hurricane—defined by sustained winds of 130–156 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale—will make U.S. landfall before 2027. Colorado State University’s April outlook projects 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and only two major (Category 3+) systems, yielding a below-average 32% chance of any major landfall along the continental U.S. coast compared with the long-term 43% baseline, driven by a weak La Niña transitioning to El Niño conditions that elevate vertical wind shear and suppress intensification. Warmer western Atlantic sea-surface temperatures provide modest upside risk, yet no tropical cyclones have formed as of mid-May, consistent with 2025’s complete absence of U.S. hurricane landfalls. NOAA’s full seasonal outlook, scheduled for May 21, and subsequent model runs will further refine these probabilities ahead of the June–November peak.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$327,353Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Subdued seasonal forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season underpin the 62% market-implied probability that no Category 4 hurricane—defined by sustained winds of 130–156 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale—will make U.S. landfall before 2027. Colorado State University’s April outlook projects 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and only two major (Category 3+) systems, yielding a below-average 32% chance of any major landfall along the continental U.S. coast compared with the long-term 43% baseline, driven by a weak La Niña transitioning to El Niño conditions that elevate vertical wind shear and suppress intensification. Warmer western Atlantic sea-surface temperatures provide modest upside risk, yet no tropical cyclones have formed as of mid-May, consistent with 2025’s complete absence of U.S. hurricane landfalls. NOAA’s full seasonal outlook, scheduled for May 21, and subsequent model runs will further refine these probabilities ahead of the June–November peak.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$327,353Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Subdued seasonal forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season underpin the 62% market-implied probability that no Category 4 hurricane—defined by sustained winds of 130–156 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale—will make U.S. landfall before 2027. Colorado State University’s April outlook projects 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and only two major (Category 3+) systems, yielding a below-average 32% chance of any major landfall along the continental U.S. coast compared with the long-term 43% baseline, driven by a weak La Niña transitioning to El Niño conditions that elevate vertical wind shear and suppress intensification. Warmer western Atlantic sea-surface temperatures provide modest upside risk, yet no tropical cyclones have formed as of mid-May, consistent with 2025’s complete absence of U.S. hurricane landfalls. NOAA’s full seasonal outlook, scheduled for May 21, and subsequent model runs will further refine these probabilities ahead of the June–November peak.
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