Strong El Niño conditions, forecast by NOAA to intensify through the August-October peak and potentially reach record strength, are driving elevated vertical wind shear across the Atlantic main development region, sharply reducing the likelihood of major hurricane formation. Official outlooks project a below-normal 2026 season overall, with 7-13 named storms, 2-6 hurricanes, and only 0-2 major (Category 3+) hurricanes, while Colorado State University assigns just 17-24% odds for any Category 3+ U.S. landfall. The season remains unusually quiet through late August, with three tropical storms and zero hurricanes formed so far. These factors, combined with historical patterns of minimal U.S. major impacts during strong El Niño years, underpin trader consensus favoring no Category 4 landfall before 2027.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
16% peluang
$340,683 Vol.
$340,683 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
16% peluang
$340,683 Vol.
$340,683 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Strong El Niño conditions, forecast by NOAA to intensify through the August-October peak and potentially reach record strength, are driving elevated vertical wind shear across the Atlantic main development region, sharply reducing the likelihood of major hurricane formation. Official outlooks project a below-normal 2026 season overall, with 7-13 named storms, 2-6 hurricanes, and only 0-2 major (Category 3+) hurricanes, while Colorado State University assigns just 17-24% odds for any Category 3+ U.S. landfall. The season remains unusually quiet through late August, with three tropical storms and zero hurricanes formed so far. These factors, combined with historical patterns of minimal U.S. major impacts during strong El Niño years, underpin trader consensus favoring no Category 4 landfall before 2027.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$340,683Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Strong El Niño conditions, forecast by NOAA to intensify through the August-October peak and potentially reach record strength, are driving elevated vertical wind shear across the Atlantic main development region, sharply reducing the likelihood of major hurricane formation. Official outlooks project a below-normal 2026 season overall, with 7-13 named storms, 2-6 hurricanes, and only 0-2 major (Category 3+) hurricanes, while Colorado State University assigns just 17-24% odds for any Category 3+ U.S. landfall. The season remains unusually quiet through late August, with three tropical storms and zero hurricanes formed so far. These factors, combined with historical patterns of minimal U.S. major impacts during strong El Niño years, underpin trader consensus favoring no Category 4 landfall before 2027.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$340,683Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong El Niño conditions, forecast by NOAA to intensify through the August-October peak and potentially reach record strength, are driving elevated vertical wind shear across the Atlantic main development region, sharply reducing the likelihood of major hurricane formation. Official outlooks project a below-normal 2026 season overall, with 7-13 named storms, 2-6 hurricanes, and only 0-2 major (Category 3+) hurricanes, while Colorado State University assigns just 17-24% odds for any Category 3+ U.S. landfall. The season remains unusually quiet through late August, with three tropical storms and zero hurricanes formed so far. These factors, combined with historical patterns of minimal U.S. major impacts during strong El Niño years, underpin trader consensus favoring no Category 4 landfall before 2027.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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