Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a record-low Arctic sea ice minimum below 4 million square kilometers this summer (58% implied probability), driven by National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) observations of a tied record-low winter maximum extent of 14.3 million square kilometers in March 2026—the second consecutive year at this level—followed by record-low extents for early May, including May 8. Persistently thin ice, reflected in low volumes around 18,500 cubic kilometers in April per model estimates, leaves the pack highly vulnerable to melt amid warming air and ocean temperatures. NOAA forecasts indicate a 60% chance of El Niño emergence by May-July 2026, a pattern historically associated with accelerated summer ice loss and lower September minima. Historical September extents have averaged above 4.5 million square kilometers recently, but the ongoing decline—about 12% per decade—supports trader bets on extremes; upcoming Sea Ice Prediction Network outlooks in June will refine model consensus amid inherent weather uncertainties.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
<4m sq km 58%
4.0-4.2m sq km 10.9%
4.4-4.6m sq km 10.1%
4.2-4.4m sq km 9.4%
$48,245 Vol.
$48,245 Vol.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
58%
4.0-4.2m sq km
11%
4.2-4.4m sq km
9%
4.4-4.6m sq km
10%
4.6-4.8m sq km
5%
4.8-5m sq km
2%
5m+ sq km
4%
<4m sq km 58%
4.0-4.2m sq km 10.9%
4.4-4.6m sq km 10.1%
4.2-4.4m sq km 9.4%
$48,245 Vol.
$48,245 Vol.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
$25,052 Vol.
58%
4.0-4.2m sq km
$3,335 Vol.
11%
4.2-4.4m sq km
$1,254 Vol.
9%
4.4-4.6m sq km
$1,335 Vol.
10%
4.6-4.8m sq km
$2,874 Vol.
5%
4.8-5m sq km
$1,199 Vol.
2%
5m+ sq km
$13,195 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a record-low Arctic sea ice minimum below 4 million square kilometers this summer (58% implied probability), driven by National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) observations of a tied record-low winter maximum extent of 14.3 million square kilometers in March 2026—the second consecutive year at this level—followed by record-low extents for early May, including May 8. Persistently thin ice, reflected in low volumes around 18,500 cubic kilometers in April per model estimates, leaves the pack highly vulnerable to melt amid warming air and ocean temperatures. NOAA forecasts indicate a 60% chance of El Niño emergence by May-July 2026, a pattern historically associated with accelerated summer ice loss and lower September minima. Historical September extents have averaged above 4.5 million square kilometers recently, but the ongoing decline—about 12% per decade—supports trader bets on extremes; upcoming Sea Ice Prediction Network outlooks in June will refine model consensus amid inherent weather uncertainties.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$48,245Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a record-low Arctic sea ice minimum below 4 million square kilometers this summer (58% implied probability), driven by National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) observations of a tied record-low winter maximum extent of 14.3 million square kilometers in March 2026—the second consecutive year at this level—followed by record-low extents for early May, including May 8. Persistently thin ice, reflected in low volumes around 18,500 cubic kilometers in April per model estimates, leaves the pack highly vulnerable to melt amid warming air and ocean temperatures. NOAA forecasts indicate a 60% chance of El Niño emergence by May-July 2026, a pattern historically associated with accelerated summer ice loss and lower September minima. Historical September extents have averaged above 4.5 million square kilometers recently, but the ongoing decline—about 12% per decade—supports trader bets on extremes; upcoming Sea Ice Prediction Network outlooks in June will refine model consensus amid inherent weather uncertainties.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$48,245Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a record-low Arctic sea ice minimum below 4 million square kilometers this summer (58% implied probability), driven by National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) observations of a tied record-low winter maximum extent of 14.3 million square kilometers in March 2026—the second consecutive year at this level—followed by record-low extents for early May, including May 8. Persistently thin ice, reflected in low volumes around 18,500 cubic kilometers in April per model estimates, leaves the pack highly vulnerable to melt amid warming air and ocean temperatures. NOAA forecasts indicate a 60% chance of El Niño emergence by May-July 2026, a pattern historically associated with accelerated summer ice loss and lower September minima. Historical September extents have averaged above 4.5 million square kilometers recently, but the ongoing decline—about 12% per decade—supports trader bets on extremes; upcoming Sea Ice Prediction Network outlooks in June will refine model consensus amid inherent weather uncertainties.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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