Recent low winter maximum extent and early melt onset across marginal seas have positioned 2026 Arctic sea ice for a September minimum near 4.3–4.5 million square kilometers, aligning with the closely matched leading market outcomes. Record-thin ice from the prior season, combined with persistent warm air intrusions over the East Siberian and Atlantic sectors, accelerates surface melt while ocean heat uptake strengthens the ice-albedo feedback. A developing El Niño may further favor poleward heat transport, though model spreads in late-summer atmospheric patterns—particularly high-pressure blocking versus cyclonic activity—create uncertainty between the 4.2–4.4 and 4.4–4.6 million square kilometer bins. NSIDC and JAXA daily extent updates through early September will refine these probabilities ahead of the annual minimum.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
4.4-4.6m sq km 28.1%
4.2-4.4m sq km 25.0%
4.6-4.8m sq km 18.7%
4.0-4.2m sq km 9.2%
$66,245 Vol.
$66,245 Vol.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
11%
4.0-4.2m sq km
9%
4.2-4.4m sq km
25%
4.4-4.6m sq km
28%
4.6-4.8m sq km
19%
4.8-5m sq km
1%
5m+ sq km
2%
4.4-4.6m sq km 28.1%
4.2-4.4m sq km 25.0%
4.6-4.8m sq km 18.7%
4.0-4.2m sq km 9.2%
$66,245 Vol.
$66,245 Vol.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
$30,184 Vol.
11%
4.0-4.2m sq km
$6,472 Vol.
9%
4.2-4.4m sq km
$2,798 Vol.
25%
4.4-4.6m sq km
$3,035 Vol.
28%
4.6-4.8m sq km
$6,593 Vol.
19%
4.8-5m sq km
$2,783 Vol.
1%
5m+ sq km
$14,380 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent low winter maximum extent and early melt onset across marginal seas have positioned 2026 Arctic sea ice for a September minimum near 4.3–4.5 million square kilometers, aligning with the closely matched leading market outcomes. Record-thin ice from the prior season, combined with persistent warm air intrusions over the East Siberian and Atlantic sectors, accelerates surface melt while ocean heat uptake strengthens the ice-albedo feedback. A developing El Niño may further favor poleward heat transport, though model spreads in late-summer atmospheric patterns—particularly high-pressure blocking versus cyclonic activity—create uncertainty between the 4.2–4.4 and 4.4–4.6 million square kilometer bins. NSIDC and JAXA daily extent updates through early September will refine these probabilities ahead of the annual minimum.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$66,245Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent low winter maximum extent and early melt onset across marginal seas have positioned 2026 Arctic sea ice for a September minimum near 4.3–4.5 million square kilometers, aligning with the closely matched leading market outcomes. Record-thin ice from the prior season, combined with persistent warm air intrusions over the East Siberian and Atlantic sectors, accelerates surface melt while ocean heat uptake strengthens the ice-albedo feedback. A developing El Niño may further favor poleward heat transport, though model spreads in late-summer atmospheric patterns—particularly high-pressure blocking versus cyclonic activity—create uncertainty between the 4.2–4.4 and 4.4–4.6 million square kilometer bins. NSIDC and JAXA daily extent updates through early September will refine these probabilities ahead of the annual minimum.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$66,245Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent low winter maximum extent and early melt onset across marginal seas have positioned 2026 Arctic sea ice for a September minimum near 4.3–4.5 million square kilometers, aligning with the closely matched leading market outcomes. Record-thin ice from the prior season, combined with persistent warm air intrusions over the East Siberian and Atlantic sectors, accelerates surface melt while ocean heat uptake strengthens the ice-albedo feedback. A developing El Niño may further favor poleward heat transport, though model spreads in late-summer atmospheric patterns—particularly high-pressure blocking versus cyclonic activity—create uncertainty between the 4.2–4.4 and 4.4–4.6 million square kilometer bins. NSIDC and JAXA daily extent updates through early September will refine these probabilities ahead of the annual minimum.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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