Recent strengthening of El Niño, with sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region reaching +1.8°C to +2.9°C and exceeding +3.0°C farther east, underpins the 94% market-implied odds of a super El Niño—defined as a very strong event with sustained anomalies of +2.0°C or more—during the 2026–27 winter. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports an El Niño Advisory and assigns greater than 90% probability to a very strong episode through Northern Hemisphere winter, with 75% odds of a historic peak exceeding prior records on the relative oceanic Niño index. Coupled ocean-atmosphere signals, including negative Southern Oscillation Index values and model consensus from dynamical ensembles, reinforce trader confidence in this outcome. Still, inherent forecast uncertainty around exact peak timing, atmospheric feedback strength, and three-month averaging periods could shift resolution if conditions moderate faster than expected.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWill there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
94% peluang
BARU
BARU
Mar 31, 2027
94% peluang
BARU
BARU
Mar 31, 2027
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.Recent strengthening of El Niño, with sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region reaching +1.8°C to +2.9°C and exceeding +3.0°C farther east, underpins the 94% market-implied odds of a super El Niño—defined as a very strong event with sustained anomalies of +2.0°C or more—during the 2026–27 winter. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports an El Niño Advisory and assigns greater than 90% probability to a very strong episode through Northern Hemisphere winter, with 75% odds of a historic peak exceeding prior records on the relative oceanic Niño index. Coupled ocean-atmosphere signals, including negative Southern Oscillation Index values and model consensus from dynamical ensembles, reinforce trader confidence in this outcome. Still, inherent forecast uncertainty around exact peak timing, atmospheric feedback strength, and three-month averaging periods could shift resolution if conditions moderate faster than expected.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ET
Volume
$9,134Tanggal Berakhir
Apr 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.Recent strengthening of El Niño, with sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region reaching +1.8°C to +2.9°C and exceeding +3.0°C farther east, underpins the 94% market-implied odds of a super El Niño—defined as a very strong event with sustained anomalies of +2.0°C or more—during the 2026–27 winter. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports an El Niño Advisory and assigns greater than 90% probability to a very strong episode through Northern Hemisphere winter, with 75% odds of a historic peak exceeding prior records on the relative oceanic Niño index. Coupled ocean-atmosphere signals, including negative Southern Oscillation Index values and model consensus from dynamical ensembles, reinforce trader confidence in this outcome. Still, inherent forecast uncertainty around exact peak timing, atmospheric feedback strength, and three-month averaging periods could shift resolution if conditions moderate faster than expected.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Volume
$9,134Tanggal Berakhir
Apr 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent strengthening of El Niño, with sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region reaching +1.8°C to +2.9°C and exceeding +3.0°C farther east, underpins the 94% market-implied odds of a super El Niño—defined as a very strong event with sustained anomalies of +2.0°C or more—during the 2026–27 winter. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports an El Niño Advisory and assigns greater than 90% probability to a very strong episode through Northern Hemisphere winter, with 75% odds of a historic peak exceeding prior records on the relative oceanic Niño index. Coupled ocean-atmosphere signals, including negative Southern Oscillation Index values and model consensus from dynamical ensembles, reinforce trader confidence in this outcome. Still, inherent forecast uncertainty around exact peak timing, atmospheric feedback strength, and three-month averaging periods could shift resolution if conditions moderate faster than expected.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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