Current sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region have already climbed above +2.8°C, with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reporting a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño (peak ≥ +2.0°C) during fall and winter 2026–27 and a 75% likelihood of a historic event exceeding all prior episodes since 1950. Model consensus from the IRI, JMA, and GFDL SPEAR systems aligns on further intensification through an October–December or November–January peak, supported by subsurface heat content and atmospheric coupling. Weekly and monthly Niño index updates plus the next CPC outlook will provide the primary near-term catalysts for any reassessment, though rapid weakening before the seasonal maximum remains the main scenario that could prevent confirmation of super El Niño status.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWill there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
94% peluang
BARU
BARU
Mar 31, 2027
94% peluang
BARU
BARU
Mar 31, 2027
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.Current sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region have already climbed above +2.8°C, with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reporting a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño (peak ≥ +2.0°C) during fall and winter 2026–27 and a 75% likelihood of a historic event exceeding all prior episodes since 1950. Model consensus from the IRI, JMA, and GFDL SPEAR systems aligns on further intensification through an October–December or November–January peak, supported by subsurface heat content and atmospheric coupling. Weekly and monthly Niño index updates plus the next CPC outlook will provide the primary near-term catalysts for any reassessment, though rapid weakening before the seasonal maximum remains the main scenario that could prevent confirmation of super El Niño status.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ET
Volume
$9,248Tanggal Berakhir
Apr 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.Current sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region have already climbed above +2.8°C, with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reporting a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño (peak ≥ +2.0°C) during fall and winter 2026–27 and a 75% likelihood of a historic event exceeding all prior episodes since 1950. Model consensus from the IRI, JMA, and GFDL SPEAR systems aligns on further intensification through an October–December or November–January peak, supported by subsurface heat content and atmospheric coupling. Weekly and monthly Niño index updates plus the next CPC outlook will provide the primary near-term catalysts for any reassessment, though rapid weakening before the seasonal maximum remains the main scenario that could prevent confirmation of super El Niño status.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Volume
$9,248Tanggal Berakhir
Apr 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Current sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region have already climbed above +2.8°C, with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reporting a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño (peak ≥ +2.0°C) during fall and winter 2026–27 and a 75% likelihood of a historic event exceeding all prior episodes since 1950. Model consensus from the IRI, JMA, and GFDL SPEAR systems aligns on further intensification through an October–December or November–January peak, supported by subsurface heat content and atmospheric coupling. Weekly and monthly Niño index updates plus the next CPC outlook will provide the primary near-term catalysts for any reassessment, though rapid weakening before the seasonal maximum remains the main scenario that could prevent confirmation of super El Niño status.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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