Ongoing but contained geopolitical tensions across the Middle East, Ukraine, and Africa have not produced fresh escalations or major diplomatic breakthroughs in recent weeks, sustaining trader consensus that no singular defining event will occur by December 31. Diplomatic activity includes the August 7 signing of the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement among Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey, alongside routine summits such as the upcoming G20 finance ministers meeting and BRICS+ gathering. National elections, including Zambia’s general vote on August 13 and Estonia’s presidential contest in September, proceed under established procedural timelines without evident disruption. This environment of steady friction without rapid change aligns with the 81.5% implied probability for “Yes,” as markets price in the absence of transformative developments within the resolution window.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTidak Ada yang Pernah Terjadi: 2026
Tidak Ada yang Pernah Terjadi: 2026
Ya
82% peluang
$726,163 Vol.
$726,163 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Ya
82% peluang
$726,163 Vol.
$726,163 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfOngoing but contained geopolitical tensions across the Middle East, Ukraine, and Africa have not produced fresh escalations or major diplomatic breakthroughs in recent weeks, sustaining trader consensus that no singular defining event will occur by December 31. Diplomatic activity includes the August 7 signing of the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement among Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey, alongside routine summits such as the upcoming G20 finance ministers meeting and BRICS+ gathering. National elections, including Zambia’s general vote on August 13 and Estonia’s presidential contest in September, proceed under established procedural timelines without evident disruption. This environment of steady friction without rapid change aligns with the 81.5% implied probability for “Yes,” as markets price in the absence of transformative developments within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volume
$726,163Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfOngoing but contained geopolitical tensions across the Middle East, Ukraine, and Africa have not produced fresh escalations or major diplomatic breakthroughs in recent weeks, sustaining trader consensus that no singular defining event will occur by December 31. Diplomatic activity includes the August 7 signing of the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement among Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey, alongside routine summits such as the upcoming G20 finance ministers meeting and BRICS+ gathering. National elections, including Zambia’s general vote on August 13 and Estonia’s presidential contest in September, proceed under established procedural timelines without evident disruption. This environment of steady friction without rapid change aligns with the 81.5% implied probability for “Yes,” as markets price in the absence of transformative developments within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Volume
$726,163Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing but contained geopolitical tensions across the Middle East, Ukraine, and Africa have not produced fresh escalations or major diplomatic breakthroughs in recent weeks, sustaining trader consensus that no singular defining event will occur by December 31. Diplomatic activity includes the August 7 signing of the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement among Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey, alongside routine summits such as the upcoming G20 finance ministers meeting and BRICS+ gathering. National elections, including Zambia’s general vote on August 13 and Estonia’s presidential contest in September, proceed under established procedural timelines without evident disruption. This environment of steady friction without rapid change aligns with the 81.5% implied probability for “Yes,” as markets price in the absence of transformative developments within the resolution window.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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