**Mojtaba Khamenei was selected as Iran's new Supreme Leader in early March 2026 by the Assembly of Experts following the February 28 assassination of his father, Ali Khamenei, in joint U.S.-Israeli strikes during the ongoing conflict.** This rapid constitutional transition via the interim leadership council and clerical body has anchored trader views, with markets pricing very low near-term odds of further turnover. Key stabilizing factors include broad consensus among Revolutionary Guards commanders, security institutions, and hardline elites, who have renewed pledges of allegiance despite the new leader's limited public profile and reported health questions. Recent military preparations under Mojtaba signal continuity in confrontation policy, while diplomatic channels and internal power balances remain the primary variables that could shift probabilities before late-2026 resolution windows.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$23,399,380 Vol.
August 15
<1%
August 22
1%
August 31
3%
September 30
7%
October 31
11%
November 30
14%
31 Desember
19%
June 30, 2027
26%
$23,399,380 Vol.
August 15
<1%
August 22
1%
August 31
3%
September 30
7%
October 31
11%
November 30
14%
31 Desember
19%
June 30, 2027
26%
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...**Mojtaba Khamenei was selected as Iran's new Supreme Leader in early March 2026 by the Assembly of Experts following the February 28 assassination of his father, Ali Khamenei, in joint U.S.-Israeli strikes during the ongoing conflict.** This rapid constitutional transition via the interim leadership council and clerical body has anchored trader views, with markets pricing very low near-term odds of further turnover. Key stabilizing factors include broad consensus among Revolutionary Guards commanders, security institutions, and hardline elites, who have renewed pledges of allegiance despite the new leader's limited public profile and reported health questions. Recent military preparations under Mojtaba signal continuity in confrontation policy, while diplomatic channels and internal power balances remain the primary variables that could shift probabilities before late-2026 resolution windows.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui



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