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icon for Perubahan kepemimpinan Iran oleh...?
Politik·Mojtaba

Perubahan kepemimpinan Iran oleh...?

icon for Perubahan kepemimpinan Iran oleh...?
Politik·Mojtaba

Perubahan kepemimpinan Iran oleh...?

$23,399,972 Vol.

Aug 15, 2026
Polymarket

$23,399,972 Vol.

Polymarket

August 15

$52,928 Vol.

<1%

August 22

$22,602 Vol.

1%

August 31

$1,130,196 Vol.

3%

September 30

$431,462 Vol.

7%

October 31

$7,555 Vol.

11%

November 30

$8,923 Vol.

14%

31 Desember

$3,967,645 Vol.

19%

June 30, 2027

$232,284 Vol.

26%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israel strikes during the 2026 Iran war killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February, prompting rapid activation of constitutional succession rules and selection of his son Mojtaba Khamenei by the Assembly of Experts in early March. Traders price low near-term odds of further change because the new leadership consolidated power through IRGC networks and an interim council, preserving regime continuity despite personnel losses and ongoing diplomatic friction. Key variables include Mojtaba Khamenei's health and visibility, internal hardliner-moderate tensions, potential nuclear or regional talks, and any escalation that could trigger additional turnover before 2027 resolution windows.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.

An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$23,399,972
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israel strikes during the 2026 Iran war killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February, prompting rapid activation of constitutional succession rules and selection of his son Mojtaba Khamenei by the Assembly of Experts in early March. Traders price low near-term odds of further change because the new leadership consolidated power through IRGC networks and an interim council, preserving regime continuity despite personnel losses and ongoing diplomatic friction. Key variables include Mojtaba Khamenei's health and visibility, internal hardliner-moderate tensions, potential nuclear or regional talks, and any escalation that could trigger additional turnover before 2027 resolution windows.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.

An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$23,399,972
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Terkait

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Apakah Mojtaba Khamenei akan menjadi kepala negara di Iran pada akhir tahun 2026?

81%
Ya
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Akankah Reza Pahlavi memimpin Iran pada tahun 2026?

4%
Ya
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Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?

14%

Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.

Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Perubahan kepemimpinan Iran oleh...?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 14 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "June 30, 2027" di 26%, diikuti oleh "31 Desember" di 19%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 26¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 26% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Perubahan kepemimpinan Iran oleh...?" telah menghasilkan $23.4 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Mar 8, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Perubahan kepemimpinan Iran oleh...?," jelajahi 14 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Perubahan kepemimpinan Iran oleh...?" adalah "June 30, 2027" di 26%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 26% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "31 Desember" di 19%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Perubahan kepemimpinan Iran oleh...?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.