Ongoing Iran-U.S. tensions and IRGC enforcement actions remain the dominant factor holding Strait of Hormuz commercial traffic at roughly 3-7% of pre-2026 norms as of early October. Since the February 28 onset of strikes, persistent incidents—including multiple IRGC strikes on tankers in recent weeks, mine hazards in standard lanes, and competing Iranian northern versus U.S.-backed southern corridors—have kept transits severely restricted despite limited LNG increases. Diplomatic talks continue through mediators with Iran conditioning fuller access on sanctions relief and blockade adjustments, yet no comprehensive ceasefire or clearance has materialized. These unresolved security, navigational, and political barriers underpin trader expectations that normal volumes will not resume by year-end.