Iran’s categorical refusal to export any enriched uranium has kept the probability of US acquisition by December 31 low in trader assessments. Recent statements from Supreme National Security Council secretary Mohsen Rezaei on October 20–21 reaffirmed that “not a single gram” will leave the country, framing the stockpile as a national asset while linking any concessions to sanctions relief, asset unfreezing, and naval blockade removal. US demands center on verifiable limits, including possible downblending or removal under IAEA oversight, yet a June 2026 memorandum of understanding expired without resolution. Damaged enrichment sites from prior strikes leave the precise remaining 60-percent-enriched inventory unverified. Negotiations remain stalled ahead of the November midterms, with traders viewing near-term transfer as unlikely absent major diplomatic shifts.