Recent conflict and stalled normalization between the United States and Iran underpin the 95.5% trader consensus against reopening a US embassy in 2026. A brief war earlier in the year ended with a June memorandum of understanding that halted fighting, eased some shipping restrictions, and set further talks on nuclear limits and related issues, yet direct diplomatic ties remain severed with Switzerland continuing to handle US interests in Tehran. Ongoing negotiations have produced incremental progress without commitments to full relations or embassy restoration by year-end. Historical precedent since 1980, combined with unresolved red lines on enrichment and regional activities, sustains the low implied probability. Late breakthroughs in the current talks or major de-escalation steps could still shift outcomes before December 31.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWill the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
5% peluang
$158,284 Vol.
$158,284 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% peluang
$158,284 Vol.
$158,284 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent conflict and stalled normalization between the United States and Iran underpin the 95.5% trader consensus against reopening a US embassy in 2026. A brief war earlier in the year ended with a June memorandum of understanding that halted fighting, eased some shipping restrictions, and set further talks on nuclear limits and related issues, yet direct diplomatic ties remain severed with Switzerland continuing to handle US interests in Tehran. Ongoing negotiations have produced incremental progress without commitments to full relations or embassy restoration by year-end. Historical precedent since 1980, combined with unresolved red lines on enrichment and regional activities, sustains the low implied probability. Late breakthroughs in the current talks or major de-escalation steps could still shift outcomes before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ET
Volume
$158,284Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent conflict and stalled normalization between the United States and Iran underpin the 95.5% trader consensus against reopening a US embassy in 2026. A brief war earlier in the year ended with a June memorandum of understanding that halted fighting, eased some shipping restrictions, and set further talks on nuclear limits and related issues, yet direct diplomatic ties remain severed with Switzerland continuing to handle US interests in Tehran. Ongoing negotiations have produced incremental progress without commitments to full relations or embassy restoration by year-end. Historical precedent since 1980, combined with unresolved red lines on enrichment and regional activities, sustains the low implied probability. Late breakthroughs in the current talks or major de-escalation steps could still shift outcomes before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$158,284Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent conflict and stalled normalization between the United States and Iran underpin the 95.5% trader consensus against reopening a US embassy in 2026. A brief war earlier in the year ended with a June memorandum of understanding that halted fighting, eased some shipping restrictions, and set further talks on nuclear limits and related issues, yet direct diplomatic ties remain severed with Switzerland continuing to handle US interests in Tehran. Ongoing negotiations have produced incremental progress without commitments to full relations or embassy restoration by year-end. Historical precedent since 1980, combined with unresolved red lines on enrichment and regional activities, sustains the low implied probability. Late breakthroughs in the current talks or major de-escalation steps could still shift outcomes before December 31.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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