Recent IAEA Board resolutions citing Iranian noncompliance, followed by parliamentary petitions and triple-urgency bills in September 2026, have fueled rhetoric around possible NPT withdrawal under Article X, citing attacks on nuclear sites and inspection disputes. However, President Masoud Pezeshkian has reaffirmed commitment to the treaty and peaceful nuclear policy, while Russia and China have publicly urged Iran to remain a party, viewing the NPT as foundational. No formal notice has been issued, bills remain under review without passage, and the three-month notification process plus international diplomacy create significant barriers. These factors underpin the 89% trader-implied probability against withdrawal before 2027.