Trader consensus heavily favors Iran remaining in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) before 2027 at 90% implied probability for "No," reflecting stalled parliamentary action on a March 28, 2026, bill proposing withdrawal amid U.S.-Israeli strikes on nuclear sites that began February 28. The legislation, requiring Guardian Council approval, awaits sessions disrupted by war, with no formal Article X notice issued despite hardliner rhetoric. Recent May 10-11 developments—U.S. rejection of Iran's nuclear counterproposal offering temporary enrichment halts tied to sanctions relief and war cessation—signal diplomatic maneuvering over exit, preserving NPT leverage. IAEA safeguards reports highlight ongoing compliance disputes but affirm Iran's treaty status, aligning with historical patterns of threats since 2004 without withdrawal. Late escalations or negotiation breakdowns could shift odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWill Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
$120,918 Vol.
$120,918 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$120,918 Vol.
$120,918 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus heavily favors Iran remaining in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) before 2027 at 90% implied probability for "No," reflecting stalled parliamentary action on a March 28, 2026, bill proposing withdrawal amid U.S.-Israeli strikes on nuclear sites that began February 28. The legislation, requiring Guardian Council approval, awaits sessions disrupted by war, with no formal Article X notice issued despite hardliner rhetoric. Recent May 10-11 developments—U.S. rejection of Iran's nuclear counterproposal offering temporary enrichment halts tied to sanctions relief and war cessation—signal diplomatic maneuvering over exit, preserving NPT leverage. IAEA safeguards reports highlight ongoing compliance disputes but affirm Iran's treaty status, aligning with historical patterns of threats since 2004 without withdrawal. Late escalations or negotiation breakdowns could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$120,918Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus heavily favors Iran remaining in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) before 2027 at 90% implied probability for "No," reflecting stalled parliamentary action on a March 28, 2026, bill proposing withdrawal amid U.S.-Israeli strikes on nuclear sites that began February 28. The legislation, requiring Guardian Council approval, awaits sessions disrupted by war, with no formal Article X notice issued despite hardliner rhetoric. Recent May 10-11 developments—U.S. rejection of Iran's nuclear counterproposal offering temporary enrichment halts tied to sanctions relief and war cessation—signal diplomatic maneuvering over exit, preserving NPT leverage. IAEA safeguards reports highlight ongoing compliance disputes but affirm Iran's treaty status, aligning with historical patterns of threats since 2004 without withdrawal. Late escalations or negotiation breakdowns could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$120,918Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors Iran remaining in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) before 2027 at 90% implied probability for "No," reflecting stalled parliamentary action on a March 28, 2026, bill proposing withdrawal amid U.S.-Israeli strikes on nuclear sites that began February 28. The legislation, requiring Guardian Council approval, awaits sessions disrupted by war, with no formal Article X notice issued despite hardliner rhetoric. Recent May 10-11 developments—U.S. rejection of Iran's nuclear counterproposal offering temporary enrichment halts tied to sanctions relief and war cessation—signal diplomatic maneuvering over exit, preserving NPT leverage. IAEA safeguards reports highlight ongoing compliance disputes but affirm Iran's treaty status, aligning with historical patterns of threats since 2004 without withdrawal. Late escalations or negotiation breakdowns could shift odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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