Iran's repeated threats of NPT withdrawal since 2025, including parliamentary reviews in March 2026 amid U.S.-Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities and sanctions risks, have not produced formal notice under Article X. Instead, post-conflict diplomacy in early 2026 has emphasized interim deals, verification arrangements, and sanctions relief in exchange for enrichment limits, with Iran remaining bound by its safeguards agreement despite suspended IAEA cooperation. Traders view outright exit as carrying substantial costs, including diplomatic isolation, forfeiture of civil nuclear cooperation, and heightened escalation risks, while negotiations offer leverage without triggering those outcomes. No formal withdrawal has occurred as of mid-2026, and the short window to year-end reinforces the consensus that structural incentives favor continued engagement over treaty departure.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWill Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
11% peluang
$321,040 Vol.
$321,040 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
11% peluang
$321,040 Vol.
$321,040 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iran's repeated threats of NPT withdrawal since 2025, including parliamentary reviews in March 2026 amid U.S.-Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities and sanctions risks, have not produced formal notice under Article X. Instead, post-conflict diplomacy in early 2026 has emphasized interim deals, verification arrangements, and sanctions relief in exchange for enrichment limits, with Iran remaining bound by its safeguards agreement despite suspended IAEA cooperation. Traders view outright exit as carrying substantial costs, including diplomatic isolation, forfeiture of civil nuclear cooperation, and heightened escalation risks, while negotiations offer leverage without triggering those outcomes. No formal withdrawal has occurred as of mid-2026, and the short window to year-end reinforces the consensus that structural incentives favor continued engagement over treaty departure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$321,040Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iran's repeated threats of NPT withdrawal since 2025, including parliamentary reviews in March 2026 amid U.S.-Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities and sanctions risks, have not produced formal notice under Article X. Instead, post-conflict diplomacy in early 2026 has emphasized interim deals, verification arrangements, and sanctions relief in exchange for enrichment limits, with Iran remaining bound by its safeguards agreement despite suspended IAEA cooperation. Traders view outright exit as carrying substantial costs, including diplomatic isolation, forfeiture of civil nuclear cooperation, and heightened escalation risks, while negotiations offer leverage without triggering those outcomes. No formal withdrawal has occurred as of mid-2026, and the short window to year-end reinforces the consensus that structural incentives favor continued engagement over treaty departure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$321,040Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's repeated threats of NPT withdrawal since 2025, including parliamentary reviews in March 2026 amid U.S.-Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities and sanctions risks, have not produced formal notice under Article X. Instead, post-conflict diplomacy in early 2026 has emphasized interim deals, verification arrangements, and sanctions relief in exchange for enrichment limits, with Iran remaining bound by its safeguards agreement despite suspended IAEA cooperation. Traders view outright exit as carrying substantial costs, including diplomatic isolation, forfeiture of civil nuclear cooperation, and heightened escalation risks, while negotiations offer leverage without triggering those outcomes. No formal withdrawal has occurred as of mid-2026, and the short window to year-end reinforces the consensus that structural incentives favor continued engagement over treaty departure.
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