Recent developments in the 2025–2026 U.S.-Iran negotiations, including indirect and technical rounds in Oman, Rome, Islamabad, and Switzerland’s Bürgenstock resort through June, have shaped trader views on venue selection. The June Islamabad Memorandum launched a 60-day window for nuclear, sanctions, and Strait of Hormuz issues, yet renewed tensions over Hormuz shipping in July and early August—with conflicting U.S. and Iranian statements on talks resuming—have elevated the “no meeting by September 30” outcome. Switzerland’s recent hosting of technical sessions supports its position as a neutral European site with established diplomatic infrastructure, while Pakistan’s prior role as mediator and Qatar’s ongoing facilitation sustain interest in those locations. Persistent uncertainty over direct engagement and implementation disputes keeps probabilities distributed across established venues and inaction.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWhere will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
No Meeting by September 30 42.8%
Switzerland 26%
Pakistan 11.8%
Qatar 11%
$3,926,313 Vol.
$3,926,313 Vol.
No Meeting by September 30
43%
Switzerland
26%
Pakistan
12%
Qatar
11%
Oman
6%
Other
1%
Austria
1%
Turkey
1%
Italy
1%
Other - Middle East/North Africa
<1%
Other - Europe
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
USA
<1%
UAE
<1%
Iraq
<1%
Iran
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Russia
<1%
Kazakhstan
<1%
No Meeting by September 30 42.8%
Switzerland 26%
Pakistan 11.8%
Qatar 11%
$3,926,313 Vol.
$3,926,313 Vol.
No Meeting by September 30
43%
Switzerland
26%
Pakistan
12%
Qatar
11%
Oman
6%
Other
1%
Austria
1%
Turkey
1%
Italy
1%
Other - Middle East/North Africa
<1%
Other - Europe
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
USA
<1%
UAE
<1%
Iraq
<1%
Iran
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Russia
<1%
Kazakhstan
<1%
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If a qualifying round occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on the country where the first qualifying senior-level diplomatic session begins.
If the next qualifying round begins in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa.”
If the next qualifying round begins in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe.”
For purposes of this market, countries’ regions will be determined based on the U.S. State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East/North Africa.
If the next qualifying round begins in any unlisted country that is not classified in either specified region, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If no qualifying round begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by September 30.”
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 22, 2026, 10:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the country in which the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If a qualifying round occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on the country where the first qualifying senior-level diplomatic session begins.
If the next qualifying round begins in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa.”
If the next qualifying round begins in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe.”
For purposes of this market, countries’ regions will be determined based on the U.S. State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East/North Africa.
If the next qualifying round begins in any unlisted country that is not classified in either specified region, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If no qualifying round begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by September 30.”
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent developments in the 2025–2026 U.S.-Iran negotiations, including indirect and technical rounds in Oman, Rome, Islamabad, and Switzerland’s Bürgenstock resort through June, have shaped trader views on venue selection. The June Islamabad Memorandum launched a 60-day window for nuclear, sanctions, and Strait of Hormuz issues, yet renewed tensions over Hormuz shipping in July and early August—with conflicting U.S. and Iranian statements on talks resuming—have elevated the “no meeting by September 30” outcome. Switzerland’s recent hosting of technical sessions supports its position as a neutral European site with established diplomatic infrastructure, while Pakistan’s prior role as mediator and Qatar’s ongoing facilitation sustain interest in those locations. Persistent uncertainty over direct engagement and implementation disputes keeps probabilities distributed across established venues and inaction.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui


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