Persistent security risks and recent attacks on commercial vessels continue to anchor the 90.5% market-implied probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic will not normalize by November 30. Ongoing mine threats, competing Iranian and U.S.-backed transit corridors, and war-risk insurance premiums at roughly 15 times peacetime levels have kept daily transits at 3–5% of the pre-crisis baseline of 74–85 vessels since the February 2026 disruption began. Elevated Brent crude prices near $100 per barrel reflect sustained supply-chain frictions, while recent tanker strikes and U.S. naval deployments underscore limited near-term de-escalation prospects. A credible diplomatic accord clearing mines and unifying routing protocols could still shift odds, though such milestones appear distant given current tensions.