Ongoing attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz continue to shape trader views on resolution probabilities for shipping-target markets. As of early October 2026, a Kuwaiti VLCC caught fire after a projectile strike on October 1, following four incidents in 24 hours at the end of September and at least 16 attacks across the month, primarily on tankers. The JMIC has raised the regional threat level to severe, with AIS-visible traffic down to roughly 4-5 vessels daily versus a pre-crisis average near 85. These disruptions have lifted Brent crude above $100 per barrel at times and elevated shipping insurance costs, while U.S. responses targeting Iranian assets sustain the cycle. Key near-term catalysts include any escalation around naval escorts or Iranian permit demands.