**Houthi territorial gains in September 2026 have increased leverage over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait without a formal closure.** Forces seized Mocha port, the Hanish islands, Perim (Mayyun) Island, and additional Red Sea coastline, placing both shores and key islands under their control by mid-September. This has enabled targeted restrictions, primarily against Saudi-linked vessels, alongside missile and drone threats that reduced transits sharply in some periods—traffic fell to roughly half normal levels at times and remains well below pre-late-2023 benchmarks overall. International authorities have issued no closure declarations, UN tracking shows ongoing though volatile commercial flows, and Houthi statements continue to affirm safe passage for non-Saudi shipping. EU naval operations (Aspides/Atalanta) and diplomatic contacts, including reported U.S.-Houthi discussions, remain relevant near-term factors alongside any further coastal advances or escalations. These elements drive trader assessments of effective disruption versus sustained, albeit riskier, navigation.