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Dunia·Timur Tengah

Pemimpin Iran akhir 2026?

icon for Pemimpin Iran akhir 2026?
Dunia·Timur Tengah

Pemimpin Iran akhir 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei 82.2%

Tidak Ada Kepala Negara 4.4%

Reza Pahlavi 3.4%

Alireza Arafi 2.5%

Polymarket

$38,628,390 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 82.2%

Tidak Ada Kepala Negara 4.4%

Reza Pahlavi 3.4%

Alireza Arafi 2.5%

Polymarket

$38,628,390 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$6,035,929 Vol.

82%

Tidak Ada Kepala Negara

$1,148,676 Vol.

4%

Reza Pahlavi

$672,396 Vol.

3%

Alireza Arafi

$2,311,688 Vol.

2%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$1,120,634 Vol.

2%

Hassan Rouhani

$944,728 Vol.

1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$776,835 Vol.

1%

Hassan Khomeini

$1,425,383 Vol.

1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$1,020,011 Vol.

1%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$918,080 Vol.

1%

Abbas Araghchi

$833,512 Vol.

<1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$437,515 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Larijani

$535,395 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$3,143,856 Vol.

<1%

Maryam Rajavi

$804,694 Vol.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$397,112 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$3,694,285 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$145,282 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$211,166 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$199,090 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$835,738 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$433,132 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$3,346,847 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$239,173 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$384,637 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Khatami

$5,191,729 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$281,722 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$254,387 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$306,671 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$341,226 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds an overwhelming lead in trader pricing because the Assembly of Experts elected him supreme leader in early March 2026 following the February 28 assassination of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, during the 2026 Iran conflict. This rapid, decisive vote by the clerical body established constitutional continuity amid wartime conditions and foreign strikes. Mojtaba's ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Basij have reinforced regime cohesion, while interim arrangements involving President Pezeshkian and Ayatollah Arafi transitioned smoothly into his confirmed role. Lingering questions around his reported injuries from the attacks and Iran's broader security environment introduce modest uncertainty about whether he will remain in office through December 2026, keeping smaller probabilities attached to reformist figures, other clerics, and scenarios without a single head of state.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$38,628,390
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds an overwhelming lead in trader pricing because the Assembly of Experts elected him supreme leader in early March 2026 following the February 28 assassination of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, during the 2026 Iran conflict. This rapid, decisive vote by the clerical body established constitutional continuity amid wartime conditions and foreign strikes. Mojtaba's ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Basij have reinforced regime cohesion, while interim arrangements involving President Pezeshkian and Ayatollah Arafi transitioned smoothly into his confirmed role. Lingering questions around his reported injuries from the attacks and Iran's broader security environment introduce modest uncertainty about whether he will remain in office through December 2026, keeping smaller probabilities attached to reformist figures, other clerics, and scenarios without a single head of state.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$38,628,390
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Pemimpin Iran akhir 2026?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 32 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Mojtaba Khamenei" di 82%, diikuti oleh "Tidak Ada Kepala Negara" di 4%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 82¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 82% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Pemimpin Iran akhir 2026?" telah menghasilkan $38.6 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Feb 28, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Pemimpin Iran akhir 2026?," jelajahi 32 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Pemimpin Iran akhir 2026?" adalah "Mojtaba Khamenei" di 82%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 82% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Tidak Ada Kepala Negara" di 4%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Pemimpin Iran akhir 2026?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.