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DuniaΒ·Timur Tengah

Pemimpin Iran akhir 2026?

icon for Pemimpin Iran akhir 2026?
DuniaΒ·Timur Tengah

Pemimpin Iran akhir 2026?

Mojtaba KhameneiΒ 64.1%

Reza PahlaviΒ 7%

Mohammad-Bagher GhalibafΒ 5.3%

Tidak Ada Kepala NegaraΒ 2.6%

Polymarket

$8,456,655 Vol.

Mojtaba KhameneiΒ 64.1%

Reza PahlaviΒ 7%

Mohammad-Bagher GhalibafΒ 5.3%

Tidak Ada Kepala NegaraΒ 2.6%

Polymarket

$8,456,655 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$2,069,057 Vol.

64%

Reza Pahlavi

$206,267 Vol.

7%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$227,966 Vol.

5%

Tidak Ada Kepala Negara

$473,784 Vol.

3%

Abbas Araghchi

$199,314 Vol.

3%

Ahmad Vahidi

$285,013 Vol.

2%

Hassan Rouhani

$338,967 Vol.

1%

Alireza Arafi

$846,814 Vol.

1%

Hassan Khomeini

$799,228 Vol.

1%

Maryam Rajavi

$304,786 Vol.

1%

Massoud Rajavi

$61,558 Vol.

1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$77,005 Vol.

1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$312,358 Vol.

1%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$124,964 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$75,515 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Khatami

$434,259 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Larijani

$195,597 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$87,111 Vol.

<1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$290,404 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$179,708 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$52,010 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$100,091 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$83,015 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$64,445 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$52,716 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$33,414 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$87,072 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$74,398 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$39,291 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$43,666 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, β€œde facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to β€œNo Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds the strongest position in trader consensus for Iran's supreme leadership by the end of 2026 due to his swift selection by the Assembly of Experts in March following the February assassination of his father, Ali Khamenei. The clerical body's unanimous vote installed the 56-year-old hardliner, who maintains close ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and security apparatus, enabling rapid consolidation of authority amid ongoing regional tensions. This outcome aligns with established patterns of institutional continuity in Iran's theocratic system, where designated successors often stabilize power quickly after leadership transitions. Alternative candidates, including Reza Pahlavi and various clerics or officials, register far lower probabilities because no major regime shifts, military reversals, or internal challenges have materialized in the subsequent months to disrupt the current succession framework. Scheduled policy reviews and diplomatic engagements through late 2026 could still introduce volatility, though current positioning favors stability under the sitting leader.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, β€œde facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to β€œNo Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$8,456,655
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, β€œde facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to β€œNo Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, β€œde facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to β€œNo Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds the strongest position in trader consensus for Iran's supreme leadership by the end of 2026 due to his swift selection by the Assembly of Experts in March following the February assassination of his father, Ali Khamenei. The clerical body's unanimous vote installed the 56-year-old hardliner, who maintains close ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and security apparatus, enabling rapid consolidation of authority amid ongoing regional tensions. This outcome aligns with established patterns of institutional continuity in Iran's theocratic system, where designated successors often stabilize power quickly after leadership transitions. Alternative candidates, including Reza Pahlavi and various clerics or officials, register far lower probabilities because no major regime shifts, military reversals, or internal challenges have materialized in the subsequent months to disrupt the current succession framework. Scheduled policy reviews and diplomatic engagements through late 2026 could still introduce volatility, though current positioning favors stability under the sitting leader.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, β€œde facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to β€œNo Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$8,456,655
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, β€œde facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to β€œNo Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Pemimpin Iran akhir 2026?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 32 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Mojtaba Khamenei" di 64%, diikuti oleh "Reza Pahlavi" di 7%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 64Β’ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 64% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Pemimpin Iran akhir 2026?" telah menghasilkan $8.5 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Mar 1, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Pemimpin Iran akhir 2026?," jelajahi 32 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Pemimpin Iran akhir 2026?" adalah "Mojtaba Khamenei" di 64%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 64% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Reza Pahlavi" di 7%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Pemimpin Iran akhir 2026?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang β€” termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.