**Ongoing US-Iran nuclear talks have centered on Iran's uranium enrichment program, with core disagreements blocking any near-term commitment to full cessation.** The Trump administration has pressed for zero or severely limited enrichment, facility dismantlement, and transfer of stockpiles, while Iranian officials maintain enrichment as an inalienable right and have proposed only temporary pauses, lower limits, or dilution under IAEA oversight rather than an outright end. Multiple rounds of negotiations since 2025, including Geneva sessions in February 2026, produced no agreement on these points despite mediation efforts. Airstrikes on Iranian sites in 2025-2026 damaged infrastructure and prompted some stockpile discussions, yet Tehran has not accepted demands to halt enrichment activities permanently. With the December 31 deadline approaching amid unresolved verification and sanctions issues, trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of such a concession materializing.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui14% peluang
$1,587,977 Vol.
$1,587,977 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
14% peluang
$1,587,977 Vol.
$1,587,977 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Ongoing US-Iran nuclear talks have centered on Iran's uranium enrichment program, with core disagreements blocking any near-term commitment to full cessation.** The Trump administration has pressed for zero or severely limited enrichment, facility dismantlement, and transfer of stockpiles, while Iranian officials maintain enrichment as an inalienable right and have proposed only temporary pauses, lower limits, or dilution under IAEA oversight rather than an outright end. Multiple rounds of negotiations since 2025, including Geneva sessions in February 2026, produced no agreement on these points despite mediation efforts. Airstrikes on Iranian sites in 2025-2026 damaged infrastructure and prompted some stockpile discussions, yet Tehran has not accepted demands to halt enrichment activities permanently. With the December 31 deadline approaching amid unresolved verification and sanctions issues, trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of such a concession materializing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Volume
$1,587,977Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Ongoing US-Iran nuclear talks have centered on Iran's uranium enrichment program, with core disagreements blocking any near-term commitment to full cessation.** The Trump administration has pressed for zero or severely limited enrichment, facility dismantlement, and transfer of stockpiles, while Iranian officials maintain enrichment as an inalienable right and have proposed only temporary pauses, lower limits, or dilution under IAEA oversight rather than an outright end. Multiple rounds of negotiations since 2025, including Geneva sessions in February 2026, produced no agreement on these points despite mediation efforts. Airstrikes on Iranian sites in 2025-2026 damaged infrastructure and prompted some stockpile discussions, yet Tehran has not accepted demands to halt enrichment activities permanently. With the December 31 deadline approaching amid unresolved verification and sanctions issues, trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of such a concession materializing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,587,977Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing US-Iran nuclear talks have centered on Iran's uranium enrichment program, with core disagreements blocking any near-term commitment to full cessation.** The Trump administration has pressed for zero or severely limited enrichment, facility dismantlement, and transfer of stockpiles, while Iranian officials maintain enrichment as an inalienable right and have proposed only temporary pauses, lower limits, or dilution under IAEA oversight rather than an outright end. Multiple rounds of negotiations since 2025, including Geneva sessions in February 2026, produced no agreement on these points despite mediation efforts. Airstrikes on Iranian sites in 2025-2026 damaged infrastructure and prompted some stockpile discussions, yet Tehran has not accepted demands to halt enrichment activities permanently. With the December 31 deadline approaching amid unresolved verification and sanctions issues, trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of such a concession materializing.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan