**Traders price the chance that Donald Trump will leave the presidency before January 1, 2027 at roughly 6.5 percent because no realistic near-term path exists for resignation, successful removal under the 25th Amendment, or other exit.** Trump began his second term in January 2025 and remains actively engaged in executive actions, policy implementation, and public appearances as of August 2026. Cabinet turnover and policy disputes have occurred, yet Republican congressional majorities and institutional norms make removal proceedings highly improbable in the remaining months of 2026. Public polling shows approval in the mid-30s, but opposition calls for the 25th Amendment lack the bipartisan support or cabinet consensus required to invoke it. Health concerns have surfaced intermittently since 2025, including reports of fatigue during meetings, yet no verified acute incapacity or medical event has altered the timeline. Sub-markets on resignation or 25th Amendment removal trade in the low single digits, reflecting the same assessment. The short window until year-end further compresses any probability of sudden change absent an unforeseen crisis.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTrump keluar sebagai Presiden sebelum 2027?
Trump keluar sebagai Presiden sebelum 2027?
Ya
7% peluang
$11,138,272 Vol.
$11,138,272 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
Ya
7% peluang
$11,138,272 Vol.
$11,138,272 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Traders price the chance that Donald Trump will leave the presidency before January 1, 2027 at roughly 6.5 percent because no realistic near-term path exists for resignation, successful removal under the 25th Amendment, or other exit.**
Trump began his second term in January 2025 and remains actively engaged in executive actions, policy implementation, and public appearances as of August 2026. Cabinet turnover and policy disputes have occurred, yet Republican congressional majorities and institutional norms make removal proceedings highly improbable in the remaining months of 2026. Public polling shows approval in the mid-30s, but opposition calls for the 25th Amendment lack the bipartisan support or cabinet consensus required to invoke it.
Health concerns have surfaced intermittently since 2025, including reports of fatigue during meetings, yet no verified acute incapacity or medical event has altered the timeline. Sub-markets on resignation or 25th Amendment removal trade in the low single digits, reflecting the same assessment. The short window until year-end further compresses any probability of sudden change absent an unforeseen crisis.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volume
$11,138,272Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Traders price the chance that Donald Trump will leave the presidency before January 1, 2027 at roughly 6.5 percent because no realistic near-term path exists for resignation, successful removal under the 25th Amendment, or other exit.**
Trump began his second term in January 2025 and remains actively engaged in executive actions, policy implementation, and public appearances as of August 2026. Cabinet turnover and policy disputes have occurred, yet Republican congressional majorities and institutional norms make removal proceedings highly improbable in the remaining months of 2026. Public polling shows approval in the mid-30s, but opposition calls for the 25th Amendment lack the bipartisan support or cabinet consensus required to invoke it.
Health concerns have surfaced intermittently since 2025, including reports of fatigue during meetings, yet no verified acute incapacity or medical event has altered the timeline. Sub-markets on resignation or 25th Amendment removal trade in the low single digits, reflecting the same assessment. The short window until year-end further compresses any probability of sudden change absent an unforeseen crisis.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$11,138,272Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders price the chance that Donald Trump will leave the presidency before January 1, 2027 at roughly 6.5 percent because no realistic near-term path exists for resignation, successful removal under the 25th Amendment, or other exit.** Trump began his second term in January 2025 and remains actively engaged in executive actions, policy implementation, and public appearances as of August 2026. Cabinet turnover and policy disputes have occurred, yet Republican congressional majorities and institutional norms make removal proceedings highly improbable in the remaining months of 2026. Public polling shows approval in the mid-30s, but opposition calls for the 25th Amendment lack the bipartisan support or cabinet consensus required to invoke it. Health concerns have surfaced intermittently since 2025, including reports of fatigue during meetings, yet no verified acute incapacity or medical event has altered the timeline. Sub-markets on resignation or 25th Amendment removal trade in the low single digits, reflecting the same assessment. The short window until year-end further compresses any probability of sudden change absent an unforeseen crisis.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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