**Flávio Bolsonaro leads Polymarket pricing at 64.8% to win Brazil’s 2026 presidential election, ahead of incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 34.5%.** Late-campaign polls from Datafolha, Quaest, AtlasIntel, and others show Lula narrowly ahead or tied in the first round on October 4, with both candidates in the low-to-mid 40s and no one near 50% of valid votes, making a runoff on October 25 the near-certain path. Flávio benefits from consolidation of right-wing support behind the Liberal Party candidate and son of ineligible former president Jair Bolsonaro, while Lula draws stronger backing on social spending but faces lower government approval ratings around 35%. Recent tightening in runoff simulations, high rejection rates near 50% for both frontrunners, and voter concerns over security, corruption, and the economy have kept the race polarized and within margins of error. Minor candidates such as Renan Santos and Augusto Cury remain in single digits and are unlikely to alter the top-two dynamic. Trader consensus reflects the structural advantage for the right in a head-to-head runoff.