A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Polymarket trader consensus for Brazil's October 4, 2026, presidential first-round election at 44.5% implied probability, bolstered by incumbency, recent polling gains, and his March 31 announcement retaining Vice President Geraldo Alckmin as running mate. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro trails at 28.5%, buoyed by his father's endorsement and strong far-right base consolidation, though fragmented by other conservatives like Romeu Zema (11.7%), whose center-right gubernatorial record in Minas Gerais appeals to moderates. A May 8-11 Quaest poll showed Lula at 46% and Flávio at 39%, up from April, amid rising Lula approval; earlier AtlasIntel surveys indicated runoff ties. With no candidate near 50%, a fragmented field raises runoff risks for the top two, per Brazil's two-round system.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Polymarket trader consensus for Brazil's October 4, 2026, presidential first-round election at 44.5% implied probability, bolstered by incumbency, recent polling gains, and his March 31 announcement retaining Vice President Geraldo Alckmin as running mate. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro trails at 28.5%, buoyed by his father's endorsement and strong far-right base consolidation, though fragmented by other conservatives like Romeu Zema (11.7%), whose center-right gubernatorial record in Minas Gerais appeals to moderates. A May 8-11 Quaest poll showed Lula at 46% and Flávio at 39%, up from April, amid rising Lula approval; earlier AtlasIntel surveys indicated runoff ties. With no candidate near 50%, a fragmented field raises runoff risks for the top two, per Brazil's two-round system.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
May 2 2026
Santana's name gains traction in national discussions as a third-place contender behind Lula and Bolsonaro, supported by polling aggregators and political analysis emphasizing his
Camilo Santana rises to 4%2%
Santana's name gains traction in national discussions as a third-place contender behind Lula and Bolsonaro, supported by polling aggregators and political analysis emphasizing his potential to disrupt the main two-candidate race
Apr 30 2026
Haddad's polling and political influence remain limited in the lead-up to the 2026 presidential election, with no major endorsements or breakthroughs reported
Fernando Haddad dips to 3%2%
Lack of significant new developments or endorsements contributed to the sustained low market
Apr 24 2026
Media coverage highlights former Supreme Court Justice Gilmar Mendes apologizing for using “homosexualidade” as an insult against Zema, easing tensions and prompting a modest
Romeu Zema rises to 10%4%
Media coverage highlights former Supreme Court Justice Gilmar Mendes apologizing for using “homosexualidade” as an insult against Zema, easing tensions and prompting a modest pull-back in Zema’s odds
Apr 22 2026
Romeu Zema publicly rejects joining Flávio Bolsonaro’s ticket as vice-presidential candidate, confirming a three-way right-wing race and solidifying his independent presidential
Romeu Zema rises to 6%2%
Romeu Zema publicly rejects joining Flávio Bolsonaro’s ticket as vice-presidential candidate, confirming a three-way right-wing race and solidifying his independent presidential bid
Apr 9 2026
Polls show Camilo Santana emerging as a competitive figure in Ceará state politics, with Genial/Quaest data indicating he could defeat Ciro Gomes in a runoff, boosting market
Camilo Santana rises to 3%2%
Polls show Camilo Santana emerging as a competitive figure in Ceará state politics, with Genial/Quaest data indicating he could defeat Ciro Gomes in a runoff, boosting market confidence in his presidential prospects
Mar 31 2026
Camilo Santana gains attention as a potential presidential candidate amid PSD's nomination of Ronaldo Caiado, highlighting internal party dynamics and opening space for Santana's
Camilo Santana gains attention as a potential presidential candidate amid PSD's nomination of Ronaldo Caiado, highlighting internal party dynamics and opening space for Santana's candidacy discussions
Mar 19 2026
Fernando Haddad announces resignation as Minister of Finance to run for Governor of São Paulo in 2026 elections
Fernando Haddad rises to 5%2%
This move indicated Haddad's shift away from national executive ambitions toward regional politics, causing a slight but temporary uptick in market interest.
Feb 11 2026
Lula signals willingness to shift alliances by inviting the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB) to join his ticket, potentially replacing Vice President Geraldo Alckmin,
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 50%2%
Lula signals willingness to shift alliances by inviting the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB) to join his ticket, potentially replacing Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, indicating strategic campaign adjustments
Dec 19 2025
Reuters poll shows half of Brazilians would not vote for a candidate backed by Jair Bolsonaro, underscoring the limited electoral value of his endorsement and further depressing
Reuters poll shows half of Brazilians would not vote for a candidate backed by Jair Bolsonaro, underscoring the limited electoral value of his endorsement and further depressing his market odds
Dec 6 2025
Flávio Bolsonaro, son of imprisoned ex-president Jair Bolsonaro, announces his presidential pre-candidacy, introducing a strong far-right challenger and increasing electoral
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 48%2%
Flávio Bolsonaro, son of imprisoned ex-president Jair Bolsonaro, announces his presidential pre-candidacy, introducing a strong far-right challenger and increasing electoral competition
Nov 4 2025
Operation Containment in Rio de Janeiro results in 120 deaths;
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 48%11%
Lula uses the event to project toughness on crime amid rising public concern, temporarily supporting his campaign image
Oct 13 2025
Mission Party registers its presidential pre‑candidacy with Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court, confirming Renan Santos’s eligibility but showing only 2‑3 % support in early polls,
Renan Santos plunges to 6%44%
Mission Party registers its presidential pre‑candidacy with Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court, confirming Renan Santos’s eligibility but showing only 2‑3 % support in early polls, prompting a steep drop from 50 % to near‑single‑digit odds
Sep 11 2025
Imprisoned Lula da Silva officially hands over presidential candidacy to Fernando Haddad, marking Haddad's formal entry as the Workers' Party candidate for the 2018 election
This event marked Haddad's sudden rise as the main left-wing candidate after Lula's disqualification, initially boosting his profile but also introducing uncertainty due to his relative lack of national recognition compared to Lula.
Oct 28 2018
Jair Bolsonaro defeats Fernando Haddad in the presidential runoff election with 55.13% of the vote, confirming Haddad's loss
The official election result confirmed Haddad's defeat, solidifying the market's low probability of his winning.
Oct 18 2018
Fernando Haddad and Ciro Gomes file formal complaints seeking to withdraw Jair Bolsonaro’s candidacy over alleged illegal campaign financing and electoral fraud via WhatsApp misinformation campaigns
This legal challenge highlighted Haddad's attempts to counter Bolsonaro's campaign tactics but failed to significantly improve his market standing amid Bolsonaro's strong lead.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Polymarket trader consensus for Brazil's October 4, 2026, presidential first-round election at 44.5% implied probability, bolstered by incumbency, recent polling gains, and his March 31 announcement retaining Vice President Geraldo Alckmin as running mate. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro trails at 28.5%, buoyed by his father's endorsement and strong far-right base consolidation, though fragmented by other conservatives like Romeu Zema (11.7%), whose center-right gubernatorial record in Minas Gerais appeals to moderates. A May 8-11 Quaest poll showed Lula at 46% and Flávio at 39%, up from April, amid rising Lula approval; earlier AtlasIntel surveys indicated runoff ties. With no candidate near 50%, a fragmented field raises runoff risks for the top two, per Brazil's two-round system.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Polymarket trader consensus for Brazil's October 4, 2026, presidential first-round election at 44.5% implied probability, bolstered by incumbency, recent polling gains, and his March 31 announcement retaining Vice President Geraldo Alckmin as running mate. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro trails at 28.5%, buoyed by his father's endorsement and strong far-right base consolidation, though fragmented by other conservatives like Romeu Zema (11.7%), whose center-right gubernatorial record in Minas Gerais appeals to moderates. A May 8-11 Quaest poll showed Lula at 46% and Flávio at 39%, up from April, amid rising Lula approval; earlier AtlasIntel surveys indicated runoff ties. With no candidate near 50%, a fragmented field raises runoff risks for the top two, per Brazil's two-round system.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
May 2 2026
Santana's name gains traction in national discussions as a third-place contender behind Lula and Bolsonaro, supported by polling aggregators and political analysis emphasizing his
Camilo Santana rises to 4%2%
Santana's name gains traction in national discussions as a third-place contender behind Lula and Bolsonaro, supported by polling aggregators and political analysis emphasizing his potential to disrupt the main two-candidate race
Apr 30 2026
Haddad's polling and political influence remain limited in the lead-up to the 2026 presidential election, with no major endorsements or breakthroughs reported
Fernando Haddad dips to 3%2%
Lack of significant new developments or endorsements contributed to the sustained low market
Apr 24 2026
Media coverage highlights former Supreme Court Justice Gilmar Mendes apologizing for using “homosexualidade” as an insult against Zema, easing tensions and prompting a modest
Romeu Zema rises to 10%4%
Media coverage highlights former Supreme Court Justice Gilmar Mendes apologizing for using “homosexualidade” as an insult against Zema, easing tensions and prompting a modest pull-back in Zema’s odds
Apr 22 2026
Romeu Zema publicly rejects joining Flávio Bolsonaro’s ticket as vice-presidential candidate, confirming a three-way right-wing race and solidifying his independent presidential
Romeu Zema rises to 6%2%
Romeu Zema publicly rejects joining Flávio Bolsonaro’s ticket as vice-presidential candidate, confirming a three-way right-wing race and solidifying his independent presidential bid
Apr 9 2026
Polls show Camilo Santana emerging as a competitive figure in Ceará state politics, with Genial/Quaest data indicating he could defeat Ciro Gomes in a runoff, boosting market
Camilo Santana rises to 3%2%
Polls show Camilo Santana emerging as a competitive figure in Ceará state politics, with Genial/Quaest data indicating he could defeat Ciro Gomes in a runoff, boosting market confidence in his presidential prospects
Mar 31 2026
Camilo Santana gains attention as a potential presidential candidate amid PSD's nomination of Ronaldo Caiado, highlighting internal party dynamics and opening space for Santana's
Camilo Santana gains attention as a potential presidential candidate amid PSD's nomination of Ronaldo Caiado, highlighting internal party dynamics and opening space for Santana's candidacy discussions
Mar 19 2026
Fernando Haddad announces resignation as Minister of Finance to run for Governor of São Paulo in 2026 elections
Fernando Haddad rises to 5%2%
This move indicated Haddad's shift away from national executive ambitions toward regional politics, causing a slight but temporary uptick in market interest.
Feb 11 2026
Lula signals willingness to shift alliances by inviting the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB) to join his ticket, potentially replacing Vice President Geraldo Alckmin,
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 50%2%
Lula signals willingness to shift alliances by inviting the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB) to join his ticket, potentially replacing Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, indicating strategic campaign adjustments
Dec 19 2025
Reuters poll shows half of Brazilians would not vote for a candidate backed by Jair Bolsonaro, underscoring the limited electoral value of his endorsement and further depressing
Reuters poll shows half of Brazilians would not vote for a candidate backed by Jair Bolsonaro, underscoring the limited electoral value of his endorsement and further depressing his market odds
Dec 6 2025
Flávio Bolsonaro, son of imprisoned ex-president Jair Bolsonaro, announces his presidential pre-candidacy, introducing a strong far-right challenger and increasing electoral
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 48%2%
Flávio Bolsonaro, son of imprisoned ex-president Jair Bolsonaro, announces his presidential pre-candidacy, introducing a strong far-right challenger and increasing electoral competition
Nov 4 2025
Operation Containment in Rio de Janeiro results in 120 deaths;
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 48%11%
Lula uses the event to project toughness on crime amid rising public concern, temporarily supporting his campaign image
Oct 13 2025
Mission Party registers its presidential pre‑candidacy with Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court, confirming Renan Santos’s eligibility but showing only 2‑3 % support in early polls,
Renan Santos plunges to 6%44%
Mission Party registers its presidential pre‑candidacy with Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court, confirming Renan Santos’s eligibility but showing only 2‑3 % support in early polls, prompting a steep drop from 50 % to near‑single‑digit odds
Sep 11 2025
Imprisoned Lula da Silva officially hands over presidential candidacy to Fernando Haddad, marking Haddad's formal entry as the Workers' Party candidate for the 2018 election
This event marked Haddad's sudden rise as the main left-wing candidate after Lula's disqualification, initially boosting his profile but also introducing uncertainty due to his relative lack of national recognition compared to Lula.
Oct 28 2018
Jair Bolsonaro defeats Fernando Haddad in the presidential runoff election with 55.13% of the vote, confirming Haddad's loss
The official election result confirmed Haddad's defeat, solidifying the market's low probability of his winning.
Oct 18 2018
Fernando Haddad and Ciro Gomes file formal complaints seeking to withdraw Jair Bolsonaro’s candidacy over alleged illegal campaign financing and electoral fraud via WhatsApp misinformation campaigns
This legal challenge highlighted Haddad's attempts to counter Bolsonaro's campaign tactics but failed to significantly improve his market standing amid Bolsonaro's strong lead.
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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan
"Pemilihan Presiden Brasil" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 15 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" di 46%, diikuti oleh "Flávio Bolsonaro" di 27%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 46¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 46% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.
Per hari ini, "Pemilihan Presiden Brasil" telah menghasilkan $71.9 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Sep 18, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.
Untuk trading di "Pemilihan Presiden Brasil," jelajahi 15 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.
Unggulan saat ini untuk "Pemilihan Presiden Brasil" adalah "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" di 46%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 46% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Flávio Bolsonaro" di 27%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.
Aturan resolusi untuk "Pemilihan Presiden Brasil" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.
Ya. Kamu tidak perlu trading untuk tetap terinformasi. Halaman ini berfungsi sebagai pelacak langsung untuk "Pemilihan Presiden Brasil." Probabilitas hasil diperbarui secara real-time saat trade baru masuk. Kamu bisa menandai halaman ini dan memeriksa bagian komentar untuk melihat apa yang dikatakan trader lain. Kamu juga bisa menggunakan filter rentang waktu pada grafik untuk melihat bagaimana peluang bergeser seiring waktu. Ini jendela real-time gratis tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.
Peluang Polymarket ditetapkan oleh trader nyata yang menaruh uang nyata di balik keyakinan mereka, yang cenderung menghasilkan prediksi yang akurat. Dengan $71.9 million diperdagangkan pada "Pemilihan Presiden Brasil," harga-harga ini mengumpulkan pengetahuan dan keyakinan kolektif dari ribuan peserta — sering kali mengalahkan jajak pendapat, prakiraan ahli, dan survei tradisional. Pasar prediksi seperti Polymarket memiliki rekam jejak akurasi yang kuat, terutama saat event mendekati tanggal resolusinya. Misalnya, Polymarket memiliki skor akurasi satu bulan sebesar 94%. Untuk statistik terbaru tentang akurasi prediksi Polymarket, kunjungi halaman akurasi di Polymarket.
Untuk melakukan trade pertamamu di "Pemilihan Presiden Brasil," daftar akun Polymarket gratis dan isi dengan crypto, kartu kredit atau debit, atau transfer bank. Setelah akunmu terisi, kembali ke halaman ini, pilih hasil yang ingin kamu trading, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu baru di pasar prediksi, klik link "Cara kerjanya" di bagian atas halaman Polymarket mana pun untuk panduan langkah demi langkah tentang cara trading.
Di Polymarket, harga setiap hasil mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Harga 46¢ untuk "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" di pasar "Pemilihan Presiden Brasil" berarti trader secara kolektif percaya ada sekitar peluang 46% bahwa "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" akan menjadi hasil yang benar. Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" di 46¢ dan hasilnya benar, kamu menerima $1,00 per saham — keuntungan 54¢ per saham. Jika salah, saham tersebut bernilai $0.
Pasar "Pemilihan Presiden Brasil" dijadwalkan diselesaikan pada atau sekitar Oct 4, 2026. Ini berarti trading akan tetap terbuka dan peluang akan terus bergeser saat informasi baru muncul sampai tanggal tersebut. Waktu resolusi tepat tergantung pada kapan hasil resmi tersedia, seperti diuraikan di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini.
Pasar "Pemilihan Presiden Brasil" memiliki komunitas aktif dengan 6,449 komentar di mana trader berbagi analisis, memperdebatkan hasil, dan membahas perkembangan terkini. Scroll ke bawah ke bagian komentar untuk membaca apa yang dipikirkan peserta lain. Kamu juga bisa memfilter berdasarkan "Top Holder" untuk melihat posisi trader terbesar pasar, atau periksa tab "Aktivitas" untuk feed real-time dari trade.
Polymarket adalah pasar prediksi terbesar di dunia, di mana kamu bisa tetap terinformasi dan mendapatkan keuntungan dari pengetahuanmu tentang event dunia nyata. Trader membeli dan menjual saham pada hasil untuk topik mulai dari politik dan pemilu hingga crypto, keuangan, olahraga, teknologi, dan budaya, termasuk pasar seperti "Pemilihan Presiden Brasil." Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time yang didukung oleh keyakinan finansial, sering kali memberikan sinyal yang lebih cepat dan lebih akurat daripada jajak pendapat, pakar, atau survei tradisional.
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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan