Brazil's 2026 inflation outlook remains centered in the 5.0–5.99% range on Polymarket, reflecting the latest IPCA reading of 4.39% year-over-year in April alongside Central Bank Focus survey median expectations at 4.89%. Geopolitical pressures from the ongoing Middle East conflict have elevated oil prices and de-anchored longer-term expectations, prompting the BCB to revise its 2026 projection upward to 4.6% even as it cut the Selic rate to 14.5%. Tight labor markets and services inflation continue to exert upward pressure, while the upcoming June Copom meeting and any easing in global energy costs represent key swing factors that could shift probabilities within the tightly contested 5–6% band.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui5.00-5.49% 27.3%
4.50-4.99% 23.9%
7.00%+ 8.1%
4.00-4.49% 7.8%
$57,305 Vol.
$57,305 Vol.
Jan 12, 2027
<3.00%
<1%
3.00-3.49%
7%
3.50-3.99%
2%
4.00-4.49%
8%
4.50-4.99%
18%
5.00-5.49%
26%
5.50-5.99%
22%
6.00-6.49%
5%
6.50-6.99%
3%
7.00%+
11%
5.00-5.49% 27.3%
4.50-4.99% 23.9%
7.00%+ 8.1%
4.00-4.49% 7.8%
$57,305 Vol.
$57,305 Vol.
Jan 12, 2027
<3.00%
$4,310 Vol.
<1%
3.00-3.49%
$4,370 Vol.
7%
3.50-3.99%
$8,996 Vol.
2%
4.00-4.49%
$7,722 Vol.
8%
4.50-4.99%
$7,022 Vol.
18%
5.00-5.49%
$6,105 Vol.
26%
5.50-5.99%
$5,695 Vol.
22%
6.00-6.49%
$4,670 Vol.
5%
6.50-6.99%
$4,858 Vol.
3%
7.00%+
$3,556 Vol.
11%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil's 2026 inflation outlook remains centered in the 5.0–5.99% range on Polymarket, reflecting the latest IPCA reading of 4.39% year-over-year in April alongside Central Bank Focus survey median expectations at 4.89%. Geopolitical pressures from the ongoing Middle East conflict have elevated oil prices and de-anchored longer-term expectations, prompting the BCB to revise its 2026 projection upward to 4.6% even as it cut the Selic rate to 14.5%. Tight labor markets and services inflation continue to exert upward pressure, while the upcoming June Copom meeting and any easing in global energy costs represent key swing factors that could shift probabilities within the tightly contested 5–6% band.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volume
$57,305Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 12, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil's 2026 inflation outlook remains centered in the 5.0–5.99% range on Polymarket, reflecting the latest IPCA reading of 4.39% year-over-year in April alongside Central Bank Focus survey median expectations at 4.89%. Geopolitical pressures from the ongoing Middle East conflict have elevated oil prices and de-anchored longer-term expectations, prompting the BCB to revise its 2026 projection upward to 4.6% even as it cut the Selic rate to 14.5%. Tight labor markets and services inflation continue to exert upward pressure, while the upcoming June Copom meeting and any easing in global energy costs represent key swing factors that could shift probabilities within the tightly contested 5–6% band.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$57,305Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 12, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Brazil's 2026 inflation outlook remains centered in the 5.0–5.99% range on Polymarket, reflecting the latest IPCA reading of 4.39% year-over-year in April alongside Central Bank Focus survey median expectations at 4.89%. Geopolitical pressures from the ongoing Middle East conflict have elevated oil prices and de-anchored longer-term expectations, prompting the BCB to revise its 2026 projection upward to 4.6% even as it cut the Selic rate to 14.5%. Tight labor markets and services inflation continue to exert upward pressure, while the upcoming June Copom meeting and any easing in global energy costs represent key swing factors that could shift probabilities within the tightly contested 5–6% band.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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