Polymarket traders price a 36.5% implied probability for Mexico's 2026 annual inflation falling in the 4.50%-4.99% band, narrowly ahead of 28.0% for 4.00%-4.49%, capturing closely contested sentiment aligned with Banxico's April survey median of 4.38% year-end after upward revisions from 4.21%. April's CPI deceleration to 4.45% year-over-year—the first easing in 2026 amid seasonal electricity subsidies—bolstered lower bins, while Banxico's split-vote 25 basis point cut to 6.50% on May 7 signaled an easing cycle pause amid sticky core pressures above 3% target. Key swing factors include May CPI data due later this month and peso volatility from U.S. policy shifts, with non-core food/housing trends differentiating outcomes.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui4.50% to 4.99% 29%
4.00% to 4.49% 22%
5.00% to 5.49% 16.8%
3.50% to 3.99% 16.2%
$41,174 Vol.
$41,174 Vol.
Jan 8, 2027
<2.50%
5%
2.50% to 2.99%
<1%
3.00% to 3.49%
7%
3.50% to 3.99%
9%
4.00% to 4.49%
28%
4.50% to 4.99%
29%
5.00% to 5.49%
17%
5.50%+
10%
4.50% to 4.99% 29%
4.00% to 4.49% 22%
5.00% to 5.49% 16.8%
3.50% to 3.99% 16.2%
$41,174 Vol.
$41,174 Vol.
Jan 8, 2027
<2.50%
$494 Vol.
5%
2.50% to 2.99%
$4,115 Vol.
<1%
3.00% to 3.49%
$25,948 Vol.
7%
3.50% to 3.99%
$396 Vol.
9%
4.00% to 4.49%
$493 Vol.
28%
4.50% to 4.99%
$3,533 Vol.
29%
5.00% to 5.49%
$1,175 Vol.
17%
5.50%+
$5,020 Vol.
10%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioPolymarket traders price a 36.5% implied probability for Mexico's 2026 annual inflation falling in the 4.50%-4.99% band, narrowly ahead of 28.0% for 4.00%-4.49%, capturing closely contested sentiment aligned with Banxico's April survey median of 4.38% year-end after upward revisions from 4.21%. April's CPI deceleration to 4.45% year-over-year—the first easing in 2026 amid seasonal electricity subsidies—bolstered lower bins, while Banxico's split-vote 25 basis point cut to 6.50% on May 7 signaled an easing cycle pause amid sticky core pressures above 3% target. Key swing factors include May CPI data due later this month and peso volatility from U.S. policy shifts, with non-core food/housing trends differentiating outcomes.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Pasar Dibuka: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$41,174Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 8, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioPolymarket traders price a 36.5% implied probability for Mexico's 2026 annual inflation falling in the 4.50%-4.99% band, narrowly ahead of 28.0% for 4.00%-4.49%, capturing closely contested sentiment aligned with Banxico's April survey median of 4.38% year-end after upward revisions from 4.21%. April's CPI deceleration to 4.45% year-over-year—the first easing in 2026 amid seasonal electricity subsidies—bolstered lower bins, while Banxico's split-vote 25 basis point cut to 6.50% on May 7 signaled an easing cycle pause amid sticky core pressures above 3% target. Key swing factors include May CPI data due later this month and peso volatility from U.S. policy shifts, with non-core food/housing trends differentiating outcomes.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Volume
$41,174Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 8, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 36.5% implied probability for Mexico's 2026 annual inflation falling in the 4.50%-4.99% band, narrowly ahead of 28.0% for 4.00%-4.49%, capturing closely contested sentiment aligned with Banxico's April survey median of 4.38% year-end after upward revisions from 4.21%. April's CPI deceleration to 4.45% year-over-year—the first easing in 2026 amid seasonal electricity subsidies—bolstered lower bins, while Banxico's split-vote 25 basis point cut to 6.50% on May 7 signaled an easing cycle pause amid sticky core pressures above 3% target. Key swing factors include May CPI data due later this month and peso volatility from U.S. policy shifts, with non-core food/housing trends differentiating outcomes.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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