Ongoing military tensions and de facto restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to anchor trader sentiment toward a "No" outcome at 71.5% implied probability, as commercial transits remain at roughly 5% of pre-conflict norms with only single-digit daily passages recorded through mid-May 2026. Persistent U.S.-Iran naval dynamics, including escort operations and IRGC oversight, have sustained high insurance premiums and prompted shippers to reroute or delay voyages, limiting throughput to a fraction of the typical 125–140 daily movements. Recent data from vessel tracking firms show minimal recovery since the February escalation, with analysts citing unresolved security risks as the key barrier to normalization by June 30. Market participants are monitoring upcoming diplomatic signals and any shift in naval postures for potential catalysts that could accelerate or further delay a return to baseline traffic levels.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
$6,382,162 Vol.
$6,382,162 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$6,382,162 Vol.
$6,382,162 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing military tensions and de facto restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to anchor trader sentiment toward a "No" outcome at 71.5% implied probability, as commercial transits remain at roughly 5% of pre-conflict norms with only single-digit daily passages recorded through mid-May 2026. Persistent U.S.-Iran naval dynamics, including escort operations and IRGC oversight, have sustained high insurance premiums and prompted shippers to reroute or delay voyages, limiting throughput to a fraction of the typical 125–140 daily movements. Recent data from vessel tracking firms show minimal recovery since the February escalation, with analysts citing unresolved security risks as the key barrier to normalization by June 30. Market participants are monitoring upcoming diplomatic signals and any shift in naval postures for potential catalysts that could accelerate or further delay a return to baseline traffic levels.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
Volume
$6,382,162Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing military tensions and de facto restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to anchor trader sentiment toward a "No" outcome at 71.5% implied probability, as commercial transits remain at roughly 5% of pre-conflict norms with only single-digit daily passages recorded through mid-May 2026. Persistent U.S.-Iran naval dynamics, including escort operations and IRGC oversight, have sustained high insurance premiums and prompted shippers to reroute or delay voyages, limiting throughput to a fraction of the typical 125–140 daily movements. Recent data from vessel tracking firms show minimal recovery since the February escalation, with analysts citing unresolved security risks as the key barrier to normalization by June 30. Market participants are monitoring upcoming diplomatic signals and any shift in naval postures for potential catalysts that could accelerate or further delay a return to baseline traffic levels.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$6,382,204Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing military tensions and de facto restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to anchor trader sentiment toward a "No" outcome at 71.5% implied probability, as commercial transits remain at roughly 5% of pre-conflict norms with only single-digit daily passages recorded through mid-May 2026. Persistent U.S.-Iran naval dynamics, including escort operations and IRGC oversight, have sustained high insurance premiums and prompted shippers to reroute or delay voyages, limiting throughput to a fraction of the typical 125–140 daily movements. Recent data from vessel tracking firms show minimal recovery since the February escalation, with analysts citing unresolved security risks as the key barrier to normalization by June 30. Market participants are monitoring upcoming diplomatic signals and any shift in naval postures for potential catalysts that could accelerate or further delay a return to baseline traffic levels.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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