Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability for a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike to 2.25% at the June 2026 meeting, reflecting surging Eurozone inflation at 3.0% in April—up from 2.6% in March—driven by energy price shocks from Middle East geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict. The ECB held rates steady at 2.00% on April 30 amid near-stagnant growth but signaled rising inflation risks, with a Reuters poll showing 85% of economists expecting the June move and Bloomberg surveys forecasting two hikes this year. No-change odds at 17.8% capture residual caution over economic fragility, while tail risks for larger hikes or cuts remain negligible below 1%. Key catalysts ahead include May CPI data on May 20 and the June 11-12 policy meeting.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiECB Interest Rates: June 2026
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
25 bps Increase 83%
No change 17.8%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$244,918 Vol.
$244,918 Vol.
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
18%
25 bps Increase
83%
50+ bps increase
1%
25 bps Increase 83%
No change 17.8%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$244,918 Vol.
$244,918 Vol.
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$47,296 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$41,626 Vol.
<1%
No change
$49,524 Vol.
18%
25 bps Increase
$59,422 Vol.
83%
50+ bps increase
$47,050 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability for a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike to 2.25% at the June 2026 meeting, reflecting surging Eurozone inflation at 3.0% in April—up from 2.6% in March—driven by energy price shocks from Middle East geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict. The ECB held rates steady at 2.00% on April 30 amid near-stagnant growth but signaled rising inflation risks, with a Reuters poll showing 85% of economists expecting the June move and Bloomberg surveys forecasting two hikes this year. No-change odds at 17.8% capture residual caution over economic fragility, while tail risks for larger hikes or cuts remain negligible below 1%. Key catalysts ahead include May CPI data on May 20 and the June 11-12 policy meeting.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$244,918Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 11, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability for a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike to 2.25% at the June 2026 meeting, reflecting surging Eurozone inflation at 3.0% in April—up from 2.6% in March—driven by energy price shocks from Middle East geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict. The ECB held rates steady at 2.00% on April 30 amid near-stagnant growth but signaled rising inflation risks, with a Reuters poll showing 85% of economists expecting the June move and Bloomberg surveys forecasting two hikes this year. No-change odds at 17.8% capture residual caution over economic fragility, while tail risks for larger hikes or cuts remain negligible below 1%. Key catalysts ahead include May CPI data on May 20 and the June 11-12 policy meeting.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Volume
$244,918Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 11, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability for a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike to 2.25% at the June 2026 meeting, reflecting surging Eurozone inflation at 3.0% in April—up from 2.6% in March—driven by energy price shocks from Middle East geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict. The ECB held rates steady at 2.00% on April 30 amid near-stagnant growth but signaled rising inflation risks, with a Reuters poll showing 85% of economists expecting the June move and Bloomberg surveys forecasting two hikes this year. No-change odds at 17.8% capture residual caution over economic fragility, while tail risks for larger hikes or cuts remain negligible below 1%. Key catalysts ahead include May CPI data on May 20 and the June 11-12 policy meeting.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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