The Bank of Russia’s ongoing easing cycle, anchored by the April 24 cut of 50 basis points to 14.5 percent, remains the dominant driver of trader expectations for another reduction at the July 24 meeting. Persistent disinflation—evidenced by April headline inflation near 5.7 percent and underlying price growth holding in the 4–5 percent annualized range—aligns with the central bank’s 2026 forecast of 4.5–5.5 percent, while subdued domestic demand and prior tightening effects reinforce the case for further relief. The May summary of key-rate discussions highlighted that additional cuts will depend on sustained progress toward the 4 percent target and manageable fiscal and external risks, positioning a 50-basis-point move as the baseline path. With the June 19 decision likely to set the tone, market-implied odds reflect strong consensus for continued monetary accommodation absent adverse data surprises.