The Bank of England's 87% implied probability of holding the 3.75% Bank Rate at its June 18 meeting reflects the Monetary Policy Committee's assessment that April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.3% remains above the 2% target, driven by energy price pass-through from Middle East supply disruptions, while a softening labor market with regular earnings growth at a five-year low of 3.6% limits second-round risks. Recent statements from Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden on May 13, indicating no immediate need for hikes in June or July, have reinforced trader expectations for a hold despite one dissenting vote for a 25 basis point increase in April and upside inflation projections exceeding 3.5% later in 2026. Market-implied odds on a modest tightening have eased to 13% amid downgraded GDP forecasts to 0.8% and tighter financial conditions, with the next catalysts including May labor data and the June Monetary Policy Report.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiBank of England decision in June?
No change 87%
25 bps increase 13%
50+ bps decrease <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$125,830 Vol.
$125,830 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
87%
25 bps increase
13%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 87%
25 bps increase 13%
50+ bps decrease <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$125,830 Vol.
$125,830 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
87%
25 bps increase
13%
50+ bps increase
<1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 24, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of England's 87% implied probability of holding the 3.75% Bank Rate at its June 18 meeting reflects the Monetary Policy Committee's assessment that April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.3% remains above the 2% target, driven by energy price pass-through from Middle East supply disruptions, while a softening labor market with regular earnings growth at a five-year low of 3.6% limits second-round risks. Recent statements from Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden on May 13, indicating no immediate need for hikes in June or July, have reinforced trader expectations for a hold despite one dissenting vote for a 25 basis point increase in April and upside inflation projections exceeding 3.5% later in 2026. Market-implied odds on a modest tightening have eased to 13% amid downgraded GDP forecasts to 0.8% and tighter financial conditions, with the next catalysts including May labor data and the June Monetary Policy Report.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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