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Economy·Banxico

Bank of Mexico Decision in August?

icon for Bank of Mexico Decision in August?
Economy·Banxico

Bank of Mexico Decision in August?

Aug 6

Sep 24

Aug 6

Sep 24

No change 88%

25 bps decrease 11%

50+ bps decrease <1%

25 bps increase <1%

Polymarket

$21,812 Vol.

No change 88%

25 bps decrease 11%

50+ bps decrease <1%

25 bps increase <1%

Polymarket

$21,812 Vol.

50+ bps decrease

$434 Vol.

1%

25 bps decrease

$1,178 Vol.

11%

No change

$19,340 Vol.

88%

25 bps increase

$484 Vol.

<1%

50+ bps increase

$376 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 6, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Banxico’s May 7 decision to cut the policy rate 25 basis points to 6.50%—its final easing move after the 2024 cycle—explicitly signaled a pause, citing Q1 economic contraction, greater slack, and reduced demand pressures. Recent May inflation data reinforced this stance, with headline CPI easing to 3.94% year-over-year (within the 2-4% target band) and core at 4.19%, though both remain above the 3% midpoint amid geopolitical and trade uncertainties. Weak 2026 GDP forecasts below 1% from several institutions further support maintaining the current restrictive level ahead of the June 25 and August 6 meetings. These factors underpin the 60% market-implied probability of no change in August, while split probabilities for modest adjustments reflect lingering inflation risks and potential data surprises.

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 6, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.

If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$21,812
Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 6, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
May 12, 2026, 10:42 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 6, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 6, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Banxico’s May 7 decision to cut the policy rate 25 basis points to 6.50%—its final easing move after the 2024 cycle—explicitly signaled a pause, citing Q1 economic contraction, greater slack, and reduced demand pressures. Recent May inflation data reinforced this stance, with headline CPI easing to 3.94% year-over-year (within the 2-4% target band) and core at 4.19%, though both remain above the 3% midpoint amid geopolitical and trade uncertainties. Weak 2026 GDP forecasts below 1% from several institutions further support maintaining the current restrictive level ahead of the June 25 and August 6 meetings. These factors underpin the 60% market-implied probability of no change in August, while split probabilities for modest adjustments reflect lingering inflation risks and potential data surprises.

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 6, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.

If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$21,812
Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 6, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
May 12, 2026, 10:42 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 6, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Bank of Mexico Decision in August?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 5 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "No change" di 88%, diikuti oleh "25 bps decrease" di 11%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 88¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 88% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Bank of Mexico Decision in August?" telah menghasilkan $21.8K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada May 12, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Bank of Mexico Decision in August?," jelajahi 5 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Bank of Mexico Decision in August?" adalah "No change" di 88%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 88% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "25 bps decrease" di 11%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Bank of Mexico Decision in August?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.