China's 2026 annual CPI inflation market reflects trader focus on subdued domestic demand offset by external price pressures. Recent April data showed headline inflation rising to 1.2% year-over-year—above consensus—driven by higher energy costs and supply-chain effects from the Middle East conflict, with producer prices also turning positive after three years of deflation. Consensus forecasts from institutions such as Nomura, UBS, and the Asian Development Bank cluster around 0.4–0.6%, citing weak consumption and property-sector drag, yet the 1.1–1.5% range commands the highest implied probability as markets price in modest reflation from policy stimulus and base effects. Key upcoming catalysts include May–June CPI releases and any further central-bank easing signals that could shift the rate path.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiChina Annual Inflation 2026
1.1 – 1.5% 50%
0.6 – 1.0% 23%
1.6 – 2.0% 21.5%
2.0-2.4% 9.0%
$40,816 Vol.
$40,816 Vol.
<-1.0%
<1%
-0.9 – -0.5%
<1%
-0.4 – 0.0%
<1%
0.1 – 0.5%
3%
0.6 – 1.0%
23%
1.1 – 1.5%
42%
1.6 – 2.0%
22%
2.0-2.4%
9%
2.5%+
5%
1.1 – 1.5% 50%
0.6 – 1.0% 23%
1.6 – 2.0% 21.5%
2.0-2.4% 9.0%
$40,816 Vol.
$40,816 Vol.
<-1.0%
<1%
-0.9 – -0.5%
<1%
-0.4 – 0.0%
<1%
0.1 – 0.5%
3%
0.6 – 1.0%
23%
1.1 – 1.5%
42%
1.6 – 2.0%
22%
2.0-2.4%
9%
2.5%+
5%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...China's 2026 annual CPI inflation market reflects trader focus on subdued domestic demand offset by external price pressures. Recent April data showed headline inflation rising to 1.2% year-over-year—above consensus—driven by higher energy costs and supply-chain effects from the Middle East conflict, with producer prices also turning positive after three years of deflation. Consensus forecasts from institutions such as Nomura, UBS, and the Asian Development Bank cluster around 0.4–0.6%, citing weak consumption and property-sector drag, yet the 1.1–1.5% range commands the highest implied probability as markets price in modest reflation from policy stimulus and base effects. Key upcoming catalysts include May–June CPI releases and any further central-bank easing signals that could shift the rate path.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan