Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with August 2026 CPI holding at 3.4% year-over-year and energy prices surging, combined with a resilient labor market showing 162,000 August nonfarm payroll gains and 4.1% unemployment, has elevated expectations for further tightening. Hawkish communications from Chair Warsh and June SEP median projections pointing to a 3.8% federal funds rate by year-end have reinforced trader consensus around an additional 25 basis point hike at the December meeting, reflected in the 60.5% market-implied probability. Recent strong data and the anticipated September move have reduced odds of no change to 35.5%, while cuts remain marginal at under 5%. Upcoming October and November releases will shape whether momentum sustains into year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui25 bps increase 59%
No change 36%
25 bps decrease 3.8%
50+ bps increase 1.8%
$858,148 Vol.
$858,148 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
4%
No change
36%
25 bps increase
59%
50+ bps increase
2%
25 bps increase 59%
No change 36%
25 bps decrease 3.8%
50+ bps increase 1.8%
$858,148 Vol.
$858,148 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$138,174 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$194,556 Vol.
4%
No change
$179,275 Vol.
36%
25 bps increase
$221,554 Vol.
59%
50+ bps increase
$130,533 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with August 2026 CPI holding at 3.4% year-over-year and energy prices surging, combined with a resilient labor market showing 162,000 August nonfarm payroll gains and 4.1% unemployment, has elevated expectations for further tightening. Hawkish communications from Chair Warsh and June SEP median projections pointing to a 3.8% federal funds rate by year-end have reinforced trader consensus around an additional 25 basis point hike at the December meeting, reflected in the 60.5% market-implied probability. Recent strong data and the anticipated September move have reduced odds of no change to 35.5%, while cuts remain marginal at under 5%. Upcoming October and November releases will shape whether momentum sustains into year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Volume
$858,148Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 9, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with August 2026 CPI holding at 3.4% year-over-year and energy prices surging, combined with a resilient labor market showing 162,000 August nonfarm payroll gains and 4.1% unemployment, has elevated expectations for further tightening. Hawkish communications from Chair Warsh and June SEP median projections pointing to a 3.8% federal funds rate by year-end have reinforced trader consensus around an additional 25 basis point hike at the December meeting, reflected in the 60.5% market-implied probability. Recent strong data and the anticipated September move have reduced odds of no change to 35.5%, while cuts remain marginal at under 5%. Upcoming October and November releases will shape whether momentum sustains into year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$858,148Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 9, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with August 2026 CPI holding at 3.4% year-over-year and energy prices surging, combined with a resilient labor market showing 162,000 August nonfarm payroll gains and 4.1% unemployment, has elevated expectations for further tightening. Hawkish communications from Chair Warsh and June SEP median projections pointing to a 3.8% federal funds rate by year-end have reinforced trader consensus around an additional 25 basis point hike at the December meeting, reflected in the 60.5% market-implied probability. Recent strong data and the anticipated September move have reduced odds of no change to 35.5%, while cuts remain marginal at under 5%. Upcoming October and November releases will shape whether momentum sustains into year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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