Persistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.2% and solid job gains, are anchoring trader expectations for the July–October FOMC sequence. The July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% by a 9-3 vote—with three members favoring a 25 basis point hike—has elevated the probability of further pauses, reflected in the 33% market-implied odds for Pause–Pause–Pause. Energy price shocks from Middle East developments and recent CPI prints have shifted futures pricing toward potential tightening rather than cuts, while upcoming September and October meetings plus fresh inflation and employment data remain key swing factors. Aggregated trader capital in these contracts captures this data-dependent caution amid elevated uncertainty.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiOther 57%
Pause–Pause–Pause 33%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.9%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.3%
$662,859 Vol.
$662,859 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
33%
Pause–Pause–Cut
4%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
57%
Other 57%
Pause–Pause–Pause 33%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.9%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.3%
$662,859 Vol.
$662,859 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$223,106 Vol.
33%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$50,992 Vol.
4%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$31,868 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$23,402 Vol.
<1%
Other
$290,004 Vol.
57%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.2% and solid job gains, are anchoring trader expectations for the July–October FOMC sequence. The July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% by a 9-3 vote—with three members favoring a 25 basis point hike—has elevated the probability of further pauses, reflected in the 33% market-implied odds for Pause–Pause–Pause. Energy price shocks from Middle East developments and recent CPI prints have shifted futures pricing toward potential tightening rather than cuts, while upcoming September and October meetings plus fresh inflation and employment data remain key swing factors. Aggregated trader capital in these contracts captures this data-dependent caution amid elevated uncertainty.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Volume
$662,859Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 28, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.2% and solid job gains, are anchoring trader expectations for the July–October FOMC sequence. The July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% by a 9-3 vote—with three members favoring a 25 basis point hike—has elevated the probability of further pauses, reflected in the 33% market-implied odds for Pause–Pause–Pause. Energy price shocks from Middle East developments and recent CPI prints have shifted futures pricing toward potential tightening rather than cuts, while upcoming September and October meetings plus fresh inflation and employment data remain key swing factors. Aggregated trader capital in these contracts captures this data-dependent caution amid elevated uncertainty.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$662,859Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 28, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.2% and solid job gains, are anchoring trader expectations for the July–October FOMC sequence. The July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% by a 9-3 vote—with three members favoring a 25 basis point hike—has elevated the probability of further pauses, reflected in the 33% market-implied odds for Pause–Pause–Pause. Energy price shocks from Middle East developments and recent CPI prints have shifted futures pricing toward potential tightening rather than cuts, while upcoming September and October meetings plus fresh inflation and employment data remain key swing factors. Aggregated trader capital in these contracts captures this data-dependent caution amid elevated uncertainty.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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