Trump's public statements of confidence in Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, his handpicked appointee sworn in during May 2026, anchor the 98.8% market-implied probability that no firing attempt occurs by year-end. Despite the September 16 unanimous 25-basis-point rate hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range and signals of further tightening to combat inflation above the 2% objective, Trump deflected blame onto the broader board and reiterated respect for Warsh's independence. Legal protections for central bank officials, reinforced by recent Supreme Court precedent, combined with the administration's focus on monetary policy stability ahead of midterms, reinforce trader consensus. Tail risks remain limited to scenarios where persistent inflation or external shocks prompt repeated defiance, though current dynamics show no such escalation.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui1% peluang
$30,017 Vol.
$30,017 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
1% peluang
$30,017 Vol.
$30,017 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump's public statements of confidence in Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, his handpicked appointee sworn in during May 2026, anchor the 98.8% market-implied probability that no firing attempt occurs by year-end. Despite the September 16 unanimous 25-basis-point rate hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range and signals of further tightening to combat inflation above the 2% objective, Trump deflected blame onto the broader board and reiterated respect for Warsh's independence. Legal protections for central bank officials, reinforced by recent Supreme Court precedent, combined with the administration's focus on monetary policy stability ahead of midterms, reinforce trader consensus. Tail risks remain limited to scenarios where persistent inflation or external shocks prompt repeated defiance, though current dynamics show no such escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ET
Volume
$30,017Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump's public statements of confidence in Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, his handpicked appointee sworn in during May 2026, anchor the 98.8% market-implied probability that no firing attempt occurs by year-end. Despite the September 16 unanimous 25-basis-point rate hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range and signals of further tightening to combat inflation above the 2% objective, Trump deflected blame onto the broader board and reiterated respect for Warsh's independence. Legal protections for central bank officials, reinforced by recent Supreme Court precedent, combined with the administration's focus on monetary policy stability ahead of midterms, reinforce trader consensus. Tail risks remain limited to scenarios where persistent inflation or external shocks prompt repeated defiance, though current dynamics show no such escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$30,017Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump's public statements of confidence in Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, his handpicked appointee sworn in during May 2026, anchor the 98.8% market-implied probability that no firing attempt occurs by year-end. Despite the September 16 unanimous 25-basis-point rate hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range and signals of further tightening to combat inflation above the 2% objective, Trump deflected blame onto the broader board and reiterated respect for Warsh's independence. Legal protections for central bank officials, reinforced by recent Supreme Court precedent, combined with the administration's focus on monetary policy stability ahead of midterms, reinforce trader consensus. Tail risks remain limited to scenarios where persistent inflation or external shocks prompt repeated defiance, though current dynamics show no such escalation.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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