The Federal Reserve’s September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00 percent, combined with updated Summary of Economic Projections showing 16 of 18 officials expecting at least one additional hike by year-end, underpins the 83.5 percent market-implied probability of further tightening in 2026. Elevated PCE inflation, projected at 3.7 percent for the year with upside risks, and a resilient labor market featuring 4.1 percent unemployment have prompted Chair Warsh and the FOMC to prioritize a timelier return to the 2 percent goal over earlier easing expectations. Geopolitical pressures on energy prices and solid GDP growth forecasts of 2.3 percent reinforce the hawkish tilt, while upcoming October data releases and the next FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts shaping trader positioning.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui84% peluang
$46,946 Vol.
$46,946 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
84% peluang
$46,946 Vol.
$46,946 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve’s September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00 percent, combined with updated Summary of Economic Projections showing 16 of 18 officials expecting at least one additional hike by year-end, underpins the 83.5 percent market-implied probability of further tightening in 2026. Elevated PCE inflation, projected at 3.7 percent for the year with upside risks, and a resilient labor market featuring 4.1 percent unemployment have prompted Chair Warsh and the FOMC to prioritize a timelier return to the 2 percent goal over earlier easing expectations. Geopolitical pressures on energy prices and solid GDP growth forecasts of 2.3 percent reinforce the hawkish tilt, while upcoming October data releases and the next FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts shaping trader positioning.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$46,946Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 9, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve’s September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00 percent, combined with updated Summary of Economic Projections showing 16 of 18 officials expecting at least one additional hike by year-end, underpins the 83.5 percent market-implied probability of further tightening in 2026. Elevated PCE inflation, projected at 3.7 percent for the year with upside risks, and a resilient labor market featuring 4.1 percent unemployment have prompted Chair Warsh and the FOMC to prioritize a timelier return to the 2 percent goal over earlier easing expectations. Geopolitical pressures on energy prices and solid GDP growth forecasts of 2.3 percent reinforce the hawkish tilt, while upcoming October data releases and the next FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts shaping trader positioning.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$46,946Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 9, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Federal Reserve’s September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00 percent, combined with updated Summary of Economic Projections showing 16 of 18 officials expecting at least one additional hike by year-end, underpins the 83.5 percent market-implied probability of further tightening in 2026. Elevated PCE inflation, projected at 3.7 percent for the year with upside risks, and a resilient labor market featuring 4.1 percent unemployment have prompted Chair Warsh and the FOMC to prioritize a timelier return to the 2 percent goal over earlier easing expectations. Geopolitical pressures on energy prices and solid GDP growth forecasts of 2.3 percent reinforce the hawkish tilt, while upcoming October data releases and the next FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts shaping trader positioning.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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